000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221518
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SUN MAR 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 03N105W TO 06N115W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION... 

E OF 120W...A WEAK PRES PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION IS MAINTAINING 
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL SEAS BELOW 6 FT IN MOST AREAS. 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH FROM 14N113W TO 
02N90W IS ENHANCING MODEST CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION FROM 02N TO 
07N BETWEEN 85W AND 97W...AND FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 110W AND 
115W. FRESH TO BRIEFLY STRONG GAP WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES 
BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE W 
OF BAJA WILL PROMPT STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NORTE LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH SEAS 
TO 9 FT IN FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS 23N BY 
LATE TUE OFF THE BAJA COAST AS FAR W AS 120W. LOOKING 
AHEAD...VARIOUS WAVE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE LONG 
PERIOD SW SWELL CROSSING THE EQUATOR W OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS 
ON TUESDAY...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS TO AT LEAST 7 FT REACHING THE 
MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY 
THURSDAY.

W OF 120W...A MID/UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING EASTWARD N 
OF 20N...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 30N130W 
TO 26N137W. A 1024 MB HIGH PRES AREA CENTERED NEAR 28N129W IS 
DISSIPATING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE WEAKENED PRES 
PATTERN IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW IN THE 
DEEP TROPICS AS NOTED IN BUOY AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE 
PASSES...ALTHOUGH TRADE WINDS TO 20 KT ARE NOTED FROM 10N TO 20N 
W OF 135W AND CONCURRENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES INDICATE 
SEAS TO 8 FT IN THIS AREA. HIGH PRES WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE 
OF THE PASSING TROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE TRADE WINDS 
TO STRENGTHEN. ALTIMETERS ARE ALSO HINTING OF THE START OF LONG 
PERIOD NW SWELL STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA...WITH COMBINED SEAS 8 TO 10 FT EXPECTED TO 
COVER THE WATERS N OF A LINE FROM 30N125W TO 07N140W MONDAY 
BEFORE DECAYING BELOW 8 FT THROUGH TUE. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN