000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191605
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC THU MAR 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1430 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
WEAK MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 04N88W TO 
04N106W TO 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11.5N116W TO 10N122W WHERE IT 
TERMINATES. ITCZ EXTENDS EXTENDS FROM 07N126W TO BEYOND 05N140W. 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED 
FROM 05.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 110W AND 118W.

...DISCUSSION... 

MOSTLY TRANQUIL MARINE AND WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE 
AREA THIS MORNING. A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N131W AND  
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N110W. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ 
TO ITS SOUTH IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E TRADEWINDS 
IN WESTERN WATERS S OF 24N AND W OF 124W. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED 
THERE THROUGH 24 HOURS BEFORE THE PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO 
TIGHTEN MODESTLY AND TRADEWINDS INCREASE FRI NIGHT AND SAT. EAST 
OF THE HIGH CENTER...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES ACROSS 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SW OF THE U.S. AND THE HIGH 
HAS PRODUCED A ELONGATED ZONE OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE N-NW 
WINDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS IN RECENT DAYS THAT 
HAS GENERATED N-NW SWELL MOVING INTO NE PORTIONS OF THE 
AREA...CREATING SEAS 8 TO 10 FT N OF 26N BETWEEN 118W AND 127W 
THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE DECREASED IN THE PAST 12-24 HOURS OFF 
OF CALIFORNIA...AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THESE 
WATERS THROUGH LATE FRI. 
 
ELSEWHERE SE OF THE RIDGE AND E OF 120W...WIND FLOW REMAINS 
LIGHT TO MODERATE. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED 15-20 
KT NW WIND FLOW S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA...AND ALSO ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS FROM CABO 
CORRIENTES TO NEAR ZIHUANTENEJO. A WEAK MONSOONAL TROUGH HAS 
DEVELOPED IN THE PAST FEW DAYS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE...WITH WEAK SW 
TO W WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS OCCURRING S OF THE TROUGH.  
THERE ARE NO ONGOING GAP WIND EVENTS THAT EXCEED 20 KT WINDS OR 
SEAS TO 8 FT...AND GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT NO EVENTS ARE 
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. THIS IS AN 
INDICATION THAT WINTER SEASON IS WINDING DOWN AS WE MOVE INTO 
THE TRANSITIONAL SPRING SEASON. 

$$
STRIPLING