000 AXPZ20 KNHC 171833 AAA TWDEP AXPZ20 KNHC DDHHMM TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1833 UTC TUE MAR 17 2015 UPDATED TO INCLUDE CONVECTION OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1800 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A RATHER WEAK MONSOON TROF AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N90W TO 04N100W TO 04N110W TO NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRES NEAR 11N118W 1011 MB...AND TO 06N130W TO 06N137W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N137W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 111W-119W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 121W- 124W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING E RATHER QUICKLY IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO EXTENDS FROM 32N124W TO 24N122W TO 16N125W AND TO NEAR 07N138W. A SWLY JET STREAM BRANCH JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING BROKEN TO OVERCAST MOSTLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS NEWD WITHIN 150 NM OF A LINE FROM 17N122W TO 25N120W TO 32N121W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH THESE CLOUDS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS MOST LIKELY OCCURRING N OF 28N BETWEEN 118W-121W. UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 111W-119W AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THU WHILE DEEPENING A BIT...THEN MOVE INLAND LATE FRI AND SAT AS IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...A LARGE UPPER LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 03N97W...WHILE BROAD RIDGING AT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS IS TO THE E OF 83W. SLIGHT DIFFLUENT ALOFT BETWEEN BOTH THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING 60 NM WIDE LINE OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION THAT EXTENDS FROM 04N84W TO 07N84W TO 09N84W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WEAK TSTMS ARE S OF 05N E OF 80.5W. LATEST ASCAT DATA SHOWED RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WITH LITTLE CONVERGENCE OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA WITH A NOTABLE EXCEPTION IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WHERE ASCAT DATA FROM LAST INDICATED MAX N-NE WINDS OF 30 KT WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N96W. HIGH PRES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN A LOOSENING OF THE CULPRIT PRES GRADIENT. BASED ON THIS TREND...THE N-NE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT AND TO 15-20 KT EARLY WED. SEAS OF 8-11 FT WILL SUBSIDE TO 8 FT TONIGHT...AND TO LESS THAN 8 FT THU. NE-NE 20-25 KT WINDS PULSING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY EARLY TONIGHT...THEN PULSE AGAIN TO 20- 25 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AND DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT EARLY WED AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. LOOKING AHEAD...A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN SEA CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BY SAT...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TRADES W OF 125W WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 6-8 FT N OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W...WHILE WINDS ELSEWHERE REMAIN LIGHT...WITH SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE. $$ AGUIRRE