000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161605 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON MAR 16 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING... A 1024 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER EASTERN MEXICO ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL NEAR 21N98W IS NOT AS STRONG AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS GALE/STORM EVENTS...HOWEVER STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A GRADIENT SUITABLE FOR MINIMAL NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE GULF. THE 0330 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS FROM LAST NIGHT CAUGHT THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE GULF...AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THERE TO NEAR 14N96W WHERE NE 20-30 KT WINDS WERE HIGHLIGHTED. THIS WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN SEAS UP TO AROUND 12 OR 13 FT. THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE THAT THE PRES GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HRS ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS LOWER TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE DURING TUE MORNING ...THEN TO 25 KT BY EARLY TUE AFTERNOON...AND 20 KT BY EARLY TUE AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME WAVEWATCH FORECASTS SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 04N89W 1010 MB TO 05N99W TO 08N110W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N110W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N119W 1010 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N123W 1009 MB TO 06N129W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N AND 60 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 88W-93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 116W-120W. ...DISCUSSION... A RATHER LARGE AND VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA EXTENDS A TROUGH S TO 10N106W TO SEWD TO A SMALL UPPER LOW AT 04N101W AND BECOMES A SHARP TROUGH ESE TO NEAR 02N88W. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 21N107W TO 16N106W TO 11N110W. DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE HAS DEVELOPED E OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW AS WELL AS TO THE E OF THE UPPER AND SURFACE TROUGHS. THE STRONG JET MAX E OF THE UPPER LOW IS CHANNELING THE MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...NWD TOWARDS MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES. THIS ACTIVITY HAS SPREAD INLAND MUCH OF NW MEXICO WHERE IT BECOMES MORE OF THE STRATIFIED TYPE PRECIPITATION. MODELS DEPICT THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS N CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH LATE TUE...AND TO S CENTRAL TEXAS WED WHILE WEAKENING. MOISTURE GUIDANCE PROGS SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND OF MOISTURE OVER MEXICO BY WED. A LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 32N135W SSW TO 23N134W...AND SW TO 08N140W. A SLY JET STEAM BRANCH E OF THIS TROUGH IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NWD WITHIN 300-420 E OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH THESE CLOUDS. A MID/UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD IS BETWEEN THE LARGE UPPER LOW AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BETWEEN BOTH THESE FEATURES IS INHIBITING SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY FROM FORMING THERE. OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE ARE MOISTURE HAS FLARED UP ON THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH WHERE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT EXITS BETWEEN THE THAT PORTION OF THE TROUGH AND AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST E OF NICARAGUA. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH. NW SWELLS LEADING TO SEAS I8N THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT ARE OCCURRING OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM 16N140W TO 08N129W TO 01N140W. THIS AREA OF SWELLS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SEAS LOWERING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY TUE. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...PEAKING DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...AND WEAKENING DURING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDS TO 30 KT IS VERY POSSIBLE E OF 87W LATE TONIGHT. RESULTANT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO MAX OUT AT 8 OR 9 FT. $$ AGUIRRE