000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150938 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN MAR 15 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MEXICO THIS MORNING AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL REACH NEAR 30 KT BY MID- AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS EVENING. MINIMAL GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MON NIGHT THEN DIMINISH TUE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N89W TO 06N106W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N123W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 105W. ...DISCUSSION... A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N108W IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SE OF THE TROUGH WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 17N101W TO 10N107W. THIS CONVECTION IS MOVING ONSHORE INTO SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS CONTINUED CONVECTION WILL CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WITH MUDSLIDES AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT IS OVER NW WATERS FROM 30N134W TO 18N140W. ASCAT PASS AT 0620 UTC SHOWED WINDS GREATER THAN 30 KT JUST W OF 140W. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN...AND EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN WATERS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE E OF 90W IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. $$ MUNDELL