000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140225
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SAT MAR 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0225 UTC. 
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER 
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS MAINTAINING A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO 
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRING WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS 
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG 
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH SUN 
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND 
REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE SAT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 
GALE FORCE SUN MORNING AND WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO GALE FORCE 
SUN NIGHT. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 05N96W WHERE LOW LEVEL 
WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 07N112W TO 
05N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
BETWEEN 84W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 108W 
AND 111W.

...DISCUSSION... 

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N127W EXTENDS RIDGE 
SE TO NEAR 17N113W AND SW TO NEAR 24N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ 
IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES N OF THE ITCZ. THIS IS 
SUPPORTING A SMALL AREA OF SEAS TO 8 FT FROM FROM 10N TO 14N W 
OF 130W. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WHICH 
WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DIMINISH THE TRADES. AS A 
RESULT...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY SAT MORNING. 

NW SWELLS HAVE PROPAGATED INTO THE NW WATERS. THIS SWELL WILL 
CONTINUE TO SHIFT INTO THE AREA WHILE SUBSIDING. SEAS 8 FT OR 
GREATER WILL REACH W OF A LINE FROM 30N133W TO 22N134W TO 
11N137W BY SAT EVENING. THEN REACH FROM 08N TO 18N W OF 135W BY 
SUN AFTERNOON. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING N OF THE AREA 
COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURES IN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS HELPING 
MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG 
GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE CONDITIONS WILL 
CONTINUE THROUGH SUN EVENING. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE 
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

$$
AL