000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110347
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC WED MAR 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
    
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER 
NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEHIND A SLOW MOVING COLD 
FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO. THE 
HIGH WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW STRONG WINDS 
TO FUNNEL ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO...EVENTUALLY BRINGING COOLER 
AND DRIER AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE ADJACENT 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY WED. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE TO GALE 
FORCE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW 
GALE FORCE EARLY FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12-13 FT IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY THU. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N87W TO 06N100W TO 04N120W TO 
03N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED. 

...DISCUSSION... 

THE EDGE OF A 2058 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS INDICATED GAP WINDS HAVE 
SLACKENED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION THIS EVENING. THESE 
WINDS ARE RELATED TO PERSISTENT STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW AND 
PULSES OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. IN ADDITION TO 
THE PAPAGAYO REGION...THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY OF THE WINDS IS 
ENABLING A RARE PLUME OF WINDS TO EMERGE FROM COAST OF NICARAGUA 
OFF THE MOUTH OF THE RIO TAMARINDO NEAR PUERTO SANDINO. THE 
COMBINED PLUMES ARE STRONGEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS. THE PULSING NATURE OF THESE GAP WINDS PRECLUDES  
FULLY DEVELOPED SEAS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS GENERALLY 8 FT OR LESS 
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS VERY AMPLIFIED WITH A 
SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OF THE 
U.S...THEN SOUTHWARD ALONG 105W/107W AND OFF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN 
COAST. STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE BASE 
OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF ASSOCIATED SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER JALISCO AND MICHOCAN STATES IN MEXICO.  
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS TROUGH WILL DEEPEN FURTHER AND AN 
UPPER LOW WILL CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FRI 
AND MEANDER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ALONG 
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASED CHANCES FOR 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN  
MANZANILLO AND PUERTO ANGEL LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS WEAK NORTH OF 20N...AHEAD OF A 
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
EXTENDING FROM 30N135W TO 24N140W. A 2224 UTC RAPIDSCAT 
SATELLITE PASS INDICATED SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE 
DIMINISHING AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO LIFT 
N OF THE AREA. SEAS WILL HOVER AT OR NEAR 8 FT N OF 27N W OF 
137W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING ALTOGETHER.  
LOOKING AHEAD...THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE LOW PRES FORMING 
ALONG THE NEXT COLD FRONT BY LATE THU...BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF 
20 TO 25 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW N OF 27N W OF 135W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT 
THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS...SIMILARLY 
TO PREVIOUS ONES... IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH HINTS OF WINDS TO 30 
KT. 

$$ 
COBB