000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101526
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC TUE MAR 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
    
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER 
NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY 
MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT AND ALLOW STRONG WINDS TO FUNNEL ALONG THE COAST OF 
MEXICO...EVENTUALLY BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR THROUGH THE 
TEHUANTEPEC ISTHMUS AND INTO THE ADJACENT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY 
EARLY WED. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE WED NIGHT 
THROUGH THU AND THU NIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE 
EARLY FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 14 FT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
BY EARLY THU.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N90W TO 02N135W TO 03N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED. 

...DISCUSSION... 

STRONG GAP WINDS ARE ONGOING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION AS 
WELL THIS MORNING...AS NOTED IN EARLY MORNING RAPIDSCAT DATA. 
THESE WINDS ARE RELATED TO PERSISTENT STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. IN ADDITION TO THE PAPAGAYO REGION...THE 
TRAJECTORY OF THE WINDS IS ENABLE A RARE PLUME OF WINDS TO 
EMERGE FROM COAST OF NICARAGUA OFF THE MOUTH OF THE RIO 
TAMARINDO NEAR PUERTO SANDINO. THE COMBINED PLUMES ARE STRONGEST 
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE PULSING NATURE 
OF THESE GAP WINDS INTERRUPTS WAVE DEVELOPMENT...KEEPING 
ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 8 FT OR SO THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROUGH REACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS 
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OF THE U.S...THEN SOUTHWARD ALONG 
105W AND OFF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST. AN AREA OF ASSOCIATED 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ACTIVE ONSHORE OVER JALISCO STATE 
IN MEXICO NEAR THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH...BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT 
WEATHER NOTED OFFSHORE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LOW WILL 
CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FRI AND SAT. 
ALONG WITH INCREASED MOISTURE THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASED CHANCES 
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 
MANZANILLO LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS WEAK NORTH OF 20N...AHEAD OF A 
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW DISCUSSION REGION...CURRENTLY 
REACHING FROM 30N137W TO 24N140W. A RECENT RAPIDSCAT SATELLITE 
PASS INDICATED STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THESE 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TODAY AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER 
TROUGH LIFTS N OF THE AREA. SEAS WILL HOVER AT OR NEAR 8 FT N OF 
27N W OF 137W THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO NW SWELL. LOOKING 
AHEAD...THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE LOW PRES FORMING ALONG THE 
NEXT COLD FRONT BY LATE THU...BRINGING BRIEF SHOT OF 20 TO 25 KT 
SOUTHERLY FLOW N OF 27N W OF 135W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT THU NIGHT 
AND EARLY FRI.

A RECENT STORM EVENT THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC AND A GALE IN THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF NE SWELL. THIS IS MIXING 
WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL AND A COMPONENT OF SE SWELL FROM 
ACROSS THE EQUATOR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 08N BETWEEN 100W 
AND 125W. MUCH OF THIS WILL DECAY BELOW 8 FT THROUGH 
TONIGHT...LEAVING AN AREA OF MIXED SWELL TO 9 FT S OF 13N W OF 
135W WHERE FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WAVE GROWTH.

$$ 
CHRISTENSEN