000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100957 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE MAR 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...HIGH PRES WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE SWD OVER EASTERN MEXICO ON WED BEHIND A WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. BY LATE WED NIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL HAVE BEEN STRONGER AS IT NUDGES SWD OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AND DENSER AIR TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVER RECOVERED WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ONSET OF NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS OF ABOUT 35 KT INTO THE GULF. THESE WINDS WILL BE PRECEDED BY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT BEGINNING LATE WED EVENING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE RANGE OF 9-12 FT LATE WED NIGHT UNDER THE GALE FORCE WINDS...WITH THESE WINDS LASTING INTO LATE THU MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N90W TO 02N107W TO 03N120W TO 02N130W TO BEYOND 04N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVELS... W OF 120W...BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING COVERS THIS PART OF THE AREA WITH A MEAN RIDGE AXIS FROM 14N135W NNE TO 27N130W TO WELL N OF THE AREA AT 32N129W. SW FLOW TO THE SE OF A VERY ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH THAT ORIGINATES FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICS...AND BRANCHES NEWD TO ROUND THE CREST OF THE RIDGE WELL N OF THE AREA IS ADVECTING EXTENSIVE OVERCAST TO BROKEN MAINLY HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC ITCZ CONVECTION INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 32N130W TO 21N140W. THIS MOISTURE THINS OUT AS IT SPILLS SEWD ACROSS THE RIDGE AXIS TO DRIER AND STABLE AIR BETWEEN 124W-120W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED WEAK TSTMS MAY BE UNDERNEATH THESE CLOUDS W OF 130W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS IS INFERRED FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 10N TO 19N W OF 130W...AND S OF 19N BETWEEN 130W-120W. E OF 120W...THE MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SW U.S TO NW MEXICO...AND TO 17N107W TO NEAR 07N110W IS THE MAIN FEATURE THERE. EARLIER MOISTURE OBSERVED E OF THE TROUGH FROM 15N TO 19N HAS DECREASED. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND INLAND THE MEXICO COAST FROM ACAPULCO TO NEAR MANZANILLO. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 100W WED ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. OTHERWISE... MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS LEADING TO RATHER DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS HAMPERING DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING OVER THIS PORTION OF THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH PRES CENTER AT 31N128W SEWD TO 23N121W AND TO NEAR 19N115W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 19N W OF 115W. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES IN THE TROPICS AND ALSO WITH A TROUGH JUST W OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING NE TO E 20-25 KT TRADES FROM 07N TO 10N W OF 136W WITH INDUCED SEAS OF 8-10 FT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY RELAX OVER THE NEXT 12 HRS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT AND FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUE THERE EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO THE FAR NW SECTION OF THE AREA. S TO SW 20 TO 25 KT WINDS AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 136W AND 139W WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT THERE. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15 KT BY TONIGHT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELLS. BY WED EVENING...THE SEAS DROP TO LESS THAN 8 FT. A TROUGH PERSISTS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIAN LOW OF 1006 MB SW TO 04N77W AND TO 01N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS MERGING WITH NE SWELLS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS BETWEEN 94W AND 125W ARE BRINGING SEAS TO 9 FT THERE. AS THE SWELL ENERGY SLOWLY DISSIPATES THROUGH WED...THE SEAS WILL RESPOND BY LOWERING TO MOSTLY 6-7 FT AS INDICATED BY THE WAVEWATCH MODEL. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS OF 25-30 KT ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 11N86W TO 11N87W WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN NE SWELL. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND GENERALLY LOW PRES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SW OF COSTA RICA SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BRING A SURGE OF NE 25-30 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF LATE TONIGHT WITH NE 20-25 KT WINDS REACHING SW TO NEAR 11N88W. BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN RESULTING IN THE WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE GULF...BUT PULSE AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT WITH WINDS ATTAINING SPEEDS OF 20-25 KT. $$ AGUIRRE