000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100335 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE MAR 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED 08N85W TO 03N110W TO 02N130W TO 04N140W. NO DEEP CONVECTION NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... A 1019 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR 33N127W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE TO 15N105W. TO ITS W LIES A DEEP LAYER UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 37N150W. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW TO JUST NW OF THE FORECAST AREA. FRESH TO STRONG S WINDS LIE OVER THE FAR NW CORNER THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 140W OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN. WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND 8 FT... RESPECTIVELY...WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO AN AREA N OF 21N AND W OF 135W THROUGH WED AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY DIMINISH AND THE FRONT DISSIPATES. A WEAK TROUGH IN THE EASTERLIES LIES N OF THE ITCZ FROM 05N138W TO 11N137W. THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE NE TRADE WINDS IN THE AREA...WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FROM 07N TO 11N W OF 135W. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MAXIMA...WITH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2.5 INCHES...TRACKING W WITH THE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH HAVE JUST ABOUT SHIFTED TO THE W OF 140W. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN MEXICO HAS FOCUSED MOISTURE ON ITS LEADING EDGE...AND THE SW WINDS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH ARE DIRECTING THE MOISTURE INTO MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIE OVER MUCH OF MEXICO N OF 19N TO A LINE FROM GUADALAJARA TO NUEVO LAREDO. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO CENTRAL MEXICO...REACHING ALONG 100W WED EVENING. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT THE WEAKENING PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE FARTHER S...ENTERING CENTRAL MEXICO ALONG THE COAST NEAR MANZANILLO WED EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER MEXICO THROUGH WED EVENING WILL ACCOMPANY THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC UNTIL WED EVENING WHEN A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MEXICO MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH CHIVELA PASS. WINDS SHOULD REACH A FRESH TO STRONG N BREEZE AS FAR S AS 15N WED EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A GALE WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TODAY. REMNANT NE SWELL FROM 06N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 90W AND 97W WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. 20-30 KT E-NE WINDS SURGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE NIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS BOTH TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO THE 8-10 FT RANGE BY MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING AS THE NE SWELL TRAVELS AWAY FROM PAPAGAYO. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AS FAR W AS 93W. A VAST AREA OF SEAS IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE CAN BE FOUND S OF 10N BETWEEN 97W AND 120W AND S OF 16N W OF 120W. THIS AREA OF HIGH SEAS IS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF NE SWELL FROM RECENT GAP WIND EVENTS...EASTERLY WIND WAVES FROM THE TRADE WINDS...AND CROSS- EQUATORIAL SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 17-19 SECOND RANGE. SEAS OVER 8 FT IN THIS REGION WILL SHRINK WESTWARD THROUGH WED EVENING WHEN THEY SHOULD BE CONFINED PRIMARILY S OF 15N AND W OF 130W. $$ SCHAUER