000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092108 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON MAR 09 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N85W TO 05N90W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N90W TO 03N105W TO 04N120W TO 03N128W TO 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION WAS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AXIS...BUT SCATTERED MODERATE WAS WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A TROUGH JUST N OF THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 06N136W TO 11N135W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1022 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR 35N129W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE TO 15N115W. TO ITS W LIES A DEEP LAYER UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 37N152W. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW TO JUST NW OF THE FORECAST AREA. FRESH TO STRONG SE TO S WINDS LIE OVER THE FAR NW CORNER THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 140W OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN. WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND 8 FT... RESPECTIVELY...WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO AN AREA N OF 20N AND W OF 135W THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WED AFTERNOON. A WEAK TROUGH IN THE EASTERLIES LIES N OF THE ITCZ FROM 06N136W TO 11N135W. THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE NE TRADE WINDS IN THE AREA...WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OBSERVED FROM 07N TO 11N W OF 130W BY THE ASCAT-B PASS AT 1830 UTC. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MAXIMA...WITH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2.5 INCHES...TRACKING W WITH THE TROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...AS WELL AS WINDS OVER ADVISORY CRITERIA...SHOULD MOVE W OF THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH BY TUE MORNING. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN MEXICO HAS FOCUSED MOISTURE ON ITS LEADING EDGE...AND THE SW WINDS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH ARE DIRECTING THE MOISTURE INTO MEXICO WITHIN 180 NM OF A LINE FROM CABO CORRIENTES ON THE PACIFIC COAST TO MATAMOROS NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO CENTRAL MEXICO...REACHING ALONG 100W WED AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT THE WEAKENING PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE FARTHER S...ENTERING CENTRAL MEXICO ALONG THE COAST NEAR MANZANILLO WED AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER MEXICO THROUGH WED AFTERNOON WILL ACCOMPANY THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A GALE WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH ONLY REMNANT NE SWELL WELL DOWNSTREAM OF PAPAGAYO AN ISSUE BY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER E-NE 20-25 KT SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUE WITH THESE CONDITIONS REACHING AS FAR W AS 10N92W. THESE NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT SURGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BUT SHOULD NOT EXTEND W OF 90W. A VAST AREA OF SEAS IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE CAN BE FOUND S OF A LINE FROM 20N140W TO 10N110W TO 10N95W. THIS AREA OF HIGH SEAS IS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF NE SWELL FROM RECENT GAP WIND EVENTS...EASTERLY WIND WAVES FROM THE TRADE WINDS...AND CROSS- EQUATORIAL SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 17-19 SECOND RANGE. SEAS OVER 8 FT IN THIS REGION WILL SHRINK WESTWARD THROUGH WED AFTERNOON WHEN THEY SHOULD BE CONFINED PRIMARILY S OF 14N AND W OF 123W. $$ SCHAUER