000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072203
TWDEP 

TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC FRI MAR 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE 
MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 12N97W WITH MAXIMUM 
SEAS OF 18 FT PER AN ALTIMETER PASS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL 
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT WITH ONLY MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS 
EXPECTED AT SUNRISE ON SUN...AND BELOW GALE FORCE WINDS BY SUN 
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT TEHUANTEPEC EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH 
20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS LATE TUE NIGHT...GRADUALLY INCREASING 
TO A MINIMAL GALE ON WED EVENING THROUGH SUNRISE ON THU.      

A MINIMAL GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.  
GALE CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN DURING MAXIMUM 
DRAINAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING...AND AGAIN LATE 
SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. THE ENHANCED NE WINDS WILL 
ALSO SPREAD N ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO THE GULF OF 
FONSECA MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. 
           
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N87W TO 02N105W TO 04N114W THEN 
RESUMES AT 04N118W TO 03N125W TO 06N140W. A SECOND ITCZ AXIS IS 
NOTED S OF THE EQUATOR AND W OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 
CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN OF THE ITCZ DURING MONTHS OF MARCH AND 
APRIL TYPICALLY EXHIBITS DUAL AXIS...ONE N OF THE EQUATOR AND 
THE OTHER ONE TO THE S OF THE EQUATOR AS PRESENTLY OBSERVED. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH BOTH ITCZ 
FEATURES.
 
...DISCUSSION... 

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N127W TO 18N106W. THE TRADES SW  
OF THE RIDGE ARE AT 15-20 KT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-10 FT IN 
MIXING NE TRADES...ALONG WITH LONG PERIOD S AND NW SWELL. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SOON INCREASE SW OF THE RIDGE 
RESULTING IN EMBEDDED PATCHES OF 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS 
BUILDING TO 11 FT. REINFORCING NE SWELL...ORIGINATING FROM A 
STORM EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WILL PROPAGATE WSW INTO 
THE TROPICAL WATERS TO THE S OF 13N...AND SPREAD W ACROSS THE 
WATERS BETWEEN 110-120W WELL INTO NEXT WEEK MIXING WITH THE NE 
TRADE WIND SWELL. CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL REACH 
THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY EARLY MON. 
 
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY NEAR 30N140W. A TIGHTENING PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGE WILL 
LEAD TO SE-S 20-30 KT WINDS N OF 23N E OF FRONT TO 132W WITH 
SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT. THE FRONT WILL REACH A POSITION FROM 31N138W 
TO 26N140W BY EARLY TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AND BECOME A NEARLY 
STATIONARY TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE SUN. NW SWELLS 
WILL FILTER INTO THE NW PART OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE 
FRONT. 
 
.GAP WINDS...                                                
GULF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ARE FUNNELING INTO THE 
GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL PULSE TO 25 KT 
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DIMINISH TO 20 
KT OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS 
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MON MORNING. WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TO SPREAD AS FAR SOUTH AS 4N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W ON SUN 
MORNING WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT. 

$$ 
GR