000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071550
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC FRI MAR 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

STORM FORCE CONDITIONS PERSISTED THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING 
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO STRONG GALE FORCE BY LATE 
MORNING. MAXIMUM SEAS ARE FORECAST TO 27 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL 
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY MINIMAL GALE 
CONDTIONS EXPECTED AT SUNRISE ON SUN...AND BELOW GALE FORCE 
WINDS BY SUN AFTERNOON. THE NEXT TEHUANTEPEC EVENT IS EXPECTED 
TO BEGIN WITH 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS LATE TUE 
NIGHT...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO A MINIMAL GALE ON WED EVENING 
THROUGH SUNRISE ON THU.      

A MINIMAL GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
TILL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN GALE CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED TO 
DEVELOP AGAIN DURING MAXIMUM DRAINAGE LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE 
THROUGH SUNRISE ON SUN. EXPECTING A MAX OF 25 KT ON SUN NIGHT 
AND MON NIGHT WITH ONLY A MINOR 25 KT PULSE ON TUE AND WED NIGHTS.
THE ENHANCED NE WINDS WILL ALSO SPREAD N ALONG THE COAST OF 
NICARAGUA TO THE GULF OF FONSECA MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT 
HOURS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. 
           
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA 
FROM 05N77W TO 02N80W. SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE 
ITCZ FORMS NEAR 07N86W AND CONTINUES SW TO 02N100W...THEN TURNS  
NW TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 05N113W...THEN RESUMES FROM 03N120W 
TO BEYOND 04N140W. OVERCAST LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED 
LIGHT SHOWERS IS OBSERVED S OF 06N E OF 82W TO THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH. SIMILAR 
CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 75 NM OF THE ITCZ AND WITHIN 180 
NM OF THE EMBEDDED TROUGH THAT IS ANALYZED FROM 03N113W TO 
08N113W. A SMALL CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION RECENTLY FLARED 
ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 05N129.5W. 

SCATTEROMETER WINDS AND BUOYS INDICATE A VERY WEAK ITCZ ALONG 
05S BETWEEN 90-113W WITH A LITTLE STRONGER SIGNATURE FROM 
01S120W TO 03S140W. OVERCAST LOW-MID LEVEL THE ENHANCED NE WINDS 
WILL ALSO SPREAD N ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO THE GULF OF 
FONSECA MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. 
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM N 
AND WITHIN 300 NM S OF THIS SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE ITCZ.
 
...DISCUSSION... 
 
ALOFT...AN UPPER SHORT WAVE RIDGE EXTENDS NE FROM AN ILL-DEFINED 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE AT 03N151W TO A CREST AT 30N131W. TO THE W OF 
THIS RIDGE IS A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE AT 35N151W. A SERIES OF 
SURFACE COLD FRONTS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE CYCLONE WITH ONE 
WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO JUST BARELY PASS E OF 140W 
LATER TODAY THEN IMMEDIATELY STALL AND RETURN W OF 140W EARLY 
SUN. TO THE E OF THE RIDGE IS A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER CYCLONE 
AT 31N117W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SSE TO A BASE AT 
09N108W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 
01N97W. DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION 
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...IS ADVECTED E INTO THE DISCUSSION 
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WITH SOME OF THIS MOISTURE ROTATING 
CYCLONICALLY E THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH...THEN TURNING NE AND 
FANNING OUT ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND TEXAS. OTHERWISE...THE 
UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY ACROSS THE TROPICS S OF 15N E OF 
115W AND SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. 

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N127W TO 15N101W. THE TRADES SW  
OF THE RIDGE ARE AT 15-20 KT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT IN 
MIXING NE TRADES...ALONG WITH LONG PERIOD S AND NW SWELL. THE 
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SOON INCREASE SW OF THE RIDGE RESULTING  
IN EMBEDDED PATCHES OF 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 11 
FT. REINFORCING NE SWELL...ORIGINATING FROM A STORM EVENT IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WILL PROPAGATE WSW INTO THE TROPICAL 
WATERS TO THE S OF 13N...AND SPREAD W ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN 
110-120W WELL INTO NEXT WEEK MIXING WITH THE NE TRADE WIND 
SWELL. THE CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.         
 
.GULF PANAMA...A NARROW SWATH OF NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15-20 
KT ON SUN. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT SHOULD BE AROUND 02N82W TONIGHT 
WITH MAX SEAS OF 9 FT.

$$ 
NELSON