000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062201
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC FRI MAR 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  
STRONG N-NE 30-45 KT GALE FORCE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 12-20 FT IS 
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A MINIMAL 40-50 KT STORM FORCE EVENT 
THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO A MAXIMUM OF ABOUT 22-23 
FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX BY SAT MORNING  
WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW DIMINISHING TO A STRONG GALE AROUND  
1800 UTC...THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY SAT INTO 
SAT NIGHT WITH ONLY MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY SUN 
MORNING...AND BELOW GALE FORCE WINDS BY SUN AFTERNOON. THE NEXT 
TEHUANTEPEC EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH 20-25 KT NORTHERLY 
WINDS ON TUE NIGHT...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO A MINIMAL GALE ON 
WED EVENING THROUGH SUNRISE ON THU.      
               
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N87W TO 02N98W TO 04N104W THEN RESUMES 
AT 04N108W TO 02N125W TO BEYOND 03N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.
 
...DISCUSSION... 
 
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED 
N OF AREA NEAR 40N127W TO 20N110W. THE TRADE WINDS SW OF THE 
RIDGE ARE AT 15-20 KT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT IN MIXING NE 
TRADES...ALONG WITH LONG PERIOD SW AND NW SWELL. THE GRADIENT IS 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SW OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH 
EMBEDDED PATCHES OF 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. 
REINFORCING NE SWELL...ORIGINATING FROM A STORM EVENT IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WILL PROPAGATE WSW INTO THE TROPICAL 
WATERS TO THE S OF 13N...AND SPREAD W ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN 
110-120W WELL INTO NEXT WEEK MIXING WITH THE NE TRADE WIND 
SWELL. 

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE 
AREA BY EARLY SAT MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT 
WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 12 FT. 
THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR 30N140W BY SAT AFTERNOON...THEN WILL 
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA 
ON SUN BEFORE DISSIPATING. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELL WILL 
FOLLOW THE FRONT.

GAP WINDS...                                                 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 20-25 KT WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED TO THE 
N OF 27N ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT THIS EVENING. 
COMBINED SEAS ESTIMATED TO 6 FT IN THE OPEN LONG FETCH WATERS 
SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING.    
                          
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND GULF OF FONSECA...NE 20-25 KT WINDS IN AND 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT 
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...AND SPREAD AS FAR SW AS 09N93W. 
THE ENHANCED NE WINDS WILL ALSO SPREAD N ALONG THE COAST OF 
NICARAGUA TO THE GULF OF FONSECA MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT 
HOURS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX 
CONSIDERABLY ON MON...WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT 
CONDITIONS ON MON NIGHT AND TUE NIGHT.

GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 
KT THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD AS FAR S AS 05N81W TONIGHT INTO 
EARLY SAT MORNING...AND AS FAR SW AS 04N82W ON EARLY SUN MORNING 
WITH MAX SEAS OF 9 FT EACH NIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF PANAMA. 
 
$$ 
GR