000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020403
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC MON MAR 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC. 
                  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06.5N85.5W TO 05N90W TO 06N114W TO 04N125W TO  
06N134W TO BEYOND 05N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 85.5W AND 96.5W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 
NM OF LINE FROM 13N123W TO 22N114W.

...DISCUSSION... 
 
A LARGE AND PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...CENTERED ALONG 
90W...AND IS ACTING TO BLOCK UPSTREAM FLOW ACROSS THE DISCUSSION 
AREA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SPANS THE AREA BETWEEN 110W AND 140W 
N OF 05N...WITH A SHARP DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE OFFSHORE OF S 
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DIGGING SWD INTO THE AREA TO 20N. THIS SYSTEM 
SUPPORTS A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF 
THE SW U.S. WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW THROUGH 30N116W TO 
21.5N130W TO 24N140W. ELEVATED CONVECTION OCCURRING IN DEEP 
LAYERED SW FLOW CONTINUES TO YIELD LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATOFORM 
PRECIP STREAMING ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND N 
PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE...N TO NE WINDS HAVE 
DIMINISHED TO AROUND 20 KT N OF THE FRONT W OF 127W...WHERE SEAS 
ARE 8 TO 10 FT IN N SWELL. ACROSS THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER 
TROUGH...A SHORT WAVE IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT TO THE 
NE...LOCATED NEAR 22.5N118W. AN ENERGETIC ATMOSPHERE S THROUGH E 
OF THE SHORTWAVE IS BOTH DRAWING MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE N AND NE 
FROM THE TROPICS THERE...BUT ALSO ACTING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION 
ALONG A CONVERGENCE LINE ROUGHLY EXTENDING WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 
FROM 13N123W TO 22N114W. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL GENERALLY 
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO ENHANCE 
CONVECTION ACROSS THE TROPICS TO THE SW OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... 
WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SE AND REACHES FROM 29N113W TO 
25N115W TO 21N118W MON AFTERNOON...WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A 
FEW TSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE 
PACIFIC WELL N OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH RIDGE EXTENDING S-SE TO 
NEAR 24N133W. SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS TO PROMOTE THE 
N TO NE WINDS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND FRESH NE TRADEWINDS TO THE S 
OF THE FRONT TO THE ITCZ...GENERALLY W OF 130W. THE HIGH ACROSS 
THE NE PACIFIC WILL SHIFT S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAINTAIN FRESH NE TRADEWINDS S OF 20N AND W OF 
130W THROUGH MON NIGHT....WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEN EXPECTED 
THROUGH TUE. 

ELSEWHERE AT LOW LEVELS...GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA E OF 
120W...WHERE ALL THE TYPICAL GAP AREA ARE SEEING MODERATE TO 
FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE GULF OF 
MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN. MOST OF THESE GAP WIND LOCATIONS WILL 
SEE WINDS MAXIMIZE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS 
TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT...DUE TO THE ENHANCEMENT OF NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE.
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE COLD FRONT HAS JUST ENTERED TO FAR N 
PORTIONS OF THIS GULF THIS EVENING...WITH S-SW 15-25 KT WINDS 
OCCURRING N OF 26N AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN 
A VERY NARROW BAND SE OF THE FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL 
GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MON AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SE...WITH 
WINDS SHIFTING W AROUND 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT MON. 
   
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS 20-25 KT ARE CURRENTLY 
OBSERVED THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF TO NEAR 14.5N95W AND 
WILL PULSE TO 30 KT OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN ON MON NIGHT...WITH 
SEAS RESPONDING AND BUILDING FROM 8 FT TO 11 FT BY EACH MORNING. 
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN 
LATE THU...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE W GULF OF 
MEXICO...AND WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE THU NIGHT 
AND REACH NEAR STORM FORCE EARLY FRI THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC.
                          
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 15-25 KT WILL GENERALLY 
CONTINUES ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF...WITH NOCTURNAL 
MAXES PULSING TO 25-30 KT TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT...AND A MUCH 
WEAKER EVENT ON TUE NIGHT. NE WINDS 15-25 KT ARE ALSO LIKELY TO 
SPILL ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF FONSECA EACH NIGHT 
DURING THE NIGHTTIME MAX ACROSS PAPAGAYO.

.GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL 
ACROSS THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 05N FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 
HOURS...WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD 8-9 FT TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT.

$$ 
STRIPLING