000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011005
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SUN MAR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0930 UTC. 
                  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
A SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND IN COLOMBIA FROM 09N75W TO THE COAST 
OF COLOMBIA NEAR 04N77W TO 00N81W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... 
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 00N TO 02N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W.

SURFACE TROUGH FROM 07N82W TO 06N87W TO 04N91W. ITCZ FROM 04N91W 
TO 05N120W TO 06N127W TO 04N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... 
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W. 

...DISCUSSION... 
 
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 35N121W 
CALIFORNIA COAST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THROUGH 
32N123W...TO 22N129W TO 10N131W...TO 01N134W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO 
19N BETWEEN 115W AND 120W. 

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA...THROUGH 30N120W...TO 27N130W TO 29N138W. THE FRONT 
IS BRING NORTHERLY WINDS THAT RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA 
HEIGHTS THAT RANGE FROM 8 TO 10 FEET. 
     
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE 18-HOUR FORECAST GIVES 20 TO 25 
KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR ONLY 6 HOURS. THE 42-HOUR 
FORECAST GIVES 20 TO 25 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ONLY FOR 6 
HOURS ALSO.
   
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 
30 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 
28/1540 UTC SHOW 25 KNOTS. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOTS MOSTLY...WITH 
SOME 12-HOUR PERIODS OF ONLY 20 TO 25 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. 

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE 
EXPECTED TO RESUME LATE TONIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT 
OCCURRING ON SUN AND MON NIGHTS...AND A MUCH WEAKER EVENT ON TUE 
NIGHT.

THE GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT 
TILL MON NIGHT WHEN GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO 20-25 
KT. 
 
$$ 
MT