000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261604 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU FEB 26 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA BETWEEN HIGH PRES RIDGING ALONG EASTERN MEXICO AND BROAD LOW PRES DEVELOPING S OF CENTRAL AMERICA. AS A RESULT...MINIMAL GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL COMMENCE FRI EVENING AND WILL THEN PERSIST INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 10-12 FT DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 010N84W TO 06N95W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N95W TO 08N122W THEN RESUMES FROM 08N125W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 106W AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 114W AND 120W...AND ALSO FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION W OF 130W WITH A WELL DEFINED UPPER CYCLONE W OF THE AREA NEAR 16N144W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW FROM OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS THE TROPICS THROUGH 23N120W TO A CREST NEAR 31N138W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONE HAS EARLIER ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 14N TO 20N W OF 133W...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY IS PRESENTLY DIMINISHING. THE DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE NE BETWEEN 115-130W...AND FROM 12N TO 24N AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PRESSES SWD ALONG 25N AND E OF 131W. THIS MOISTURE IS ERODING FROM THE N AS IT APPROACHES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. E OF 107W...THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY DRY AND STABLE UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE THERE. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AT THE SURFACE...STRONG 1036 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 40N138W EXTENDS A RIDGE SEWD TO 32N132W TO 24N122W TO NEAR 17N114W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 114W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER THE TROPICS IS RESULTING IN NE TO E 20-25 KT WINDS FROM 10N TO 18N W OF 132W WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS IN ABOUT 24 HRS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS WITH THE 1036 MB HIGH SHIFTING NW AND WEAKENING. IN ABOUT 12 HRS...SEAS TO 8 FT IN NW TO N SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO INTRUDE THE NE PART OF THE AREA N OF 29N BETWEEN 121W AND 128W. THESE SWELLS BUILD TO 8-11 FT BY EARLY FRI N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W-131W...THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 9 FT N OF 27N BETWEEN 117W-122W BY EARLY SAT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE LOW LEVEL NW WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS S OF 28N. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VARIABLE AT 5-10 KT TONIGHT. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME S-SW ON FRI...INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN RELAX TO 10-15 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN GULF ON SUN NIGHT. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SURGE OF NE 20-25 KT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SAT. THESE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO EXPAND WESTWARD SUN INTO MON. $$ LEWITSKY/AGUIRRE