000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260328
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC. 
                  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ FORMS NEAR 06N95W 
AND WIGGLES W TO 07N109W...THEN SW TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH 
AT 119W THEN CONTINUES SW FROM 08N122W TO BEYOND 02N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
07N111W TO 05N129W. 
 
A TROUGH IS ANALYZED JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 08N135W TO 22N140W.
 
...DISCUSSION... 

AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION W OF 130W WITH A WELL  
DEFINED UPPER CYCLONE W OF THE AREA NEAR 16N144W. AN UPPER RIDGE 
EXTENDS NW FROM OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS THE TROPICS THROUGH 23N120W 
TO A CREST NEAR 31N139W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER 
TROUGH AND CYCLONE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION 
WITH THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AT 199W AND 
ANOTHER LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED W OF 140W. THE DENSE 
DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION IS ADVECTED N 
COVERING THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 120-138W...THEN THE PLUME 
TURNS EASTWARD BETWEEN 24-31N...AND CONTINUES E WITH EVAPORATION 
INDICATED AS THE PLUME CROSSES NORTHERN MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 14N104W. EASTERLY 20-25  
KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED FROM 23-27N W OF 138W WITH SEAS OF 10-11 
FT. NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE SW OF THE RIDGE 
WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT IN MIXING E AND NW SWELL. THE GRADIENT SW OF 
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS TONIGHT...BUT 
INCREASE ACROSS THE TROPICS WITH AN AREA OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS 
DEVELOPING FROM 11-18N W OF 133W ON THU...THEN DIMINISHING TO 20 
KT OR LESS ON THU NIGHT. BY THEN...NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE NE OF 
THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-12 FT ACROSS THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 120-130W. THE WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH TO NW AT 15-20 KT LATE FRI AS THE N-N SWELLS REACH THE 
PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 6-8 
FT SEAS. THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT ON SAT.    

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE LOW LEVEL NW WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 
15-20 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS S OF 28N AND ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU...BECOMING VARIABLE AT 5-10 
KT ON THU EVENING. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME S-SW ON 
FRI...INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON FRI NIGHT 
THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN RELAX TO 10-15 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK 
TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN GULF ON SUN NIGHT.   

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NEXT NORTHERLY SURGE OF 20-25 KT IS 
EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE ON FRI...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO MINIMAL 
GALE CONDITIONS ON FRI NIGHT.
                              
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO 
RESUME ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT ON 
SUN NIGHT.

$$ 
NELSON