000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251604 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED FEB 25 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS WSW FROM 06N88W TO 06N108W TO 06N115W WHERE IT IS INTERRUPTED BY A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 05N117W TO 10N115W. IT RESUMES AT 04N120W SW TO 01N130W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE ITCZ...HOWEVER SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE TROUGH. ...DISCUSSION... A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA GENERALLY N OF 02N W OF 129W WITH A WELL DEFINED UPPER CYCLONE EMBEDDED NEAR 15N142W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONE IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 18N W OF 135W. THE DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION IS BEING ADVECTED N COVERING THE WATERS BETWEEN 122W-140W. SOME OF THIS UPPER MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS...IS TURNING EASTWARD FROM 25N TO 32N AND CONTINUES EASTWARD TO ACROSS PARTS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND EVENTUALLY FEEDING INTO ANOTHER MOISTURE PLUME OVER TEXAS. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW FROM SMALL ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA TO 10N89W AND TO 13N106W. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS EXTENDS SSW TO NEAR 22N102W. CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THIS TROUGH IS CHANNELING MODERATE SUBSIDENCE EASTWARD TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS NOTED OVER THOSE PORTIONS OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 05N117W TO 10N115W WILL SHIFT TO NEAR 125W THU...AND WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES 138W FRI. BOTH RAPID SCAT AND ASCAT PASSES REVEALED NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 9-12 FT FROM 22N TO 25N W OF 133W. THE MODEL FORECAST TRENDS IS FOR THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THU WHILE DIMINISHING AS THE CULPRIT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1035 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AREA AT 42N133W ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N129W...AND CONTINUES SEWD TO 26N120W AND TO NEAR 19N116W. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES TO ITS SW IS PROMOTING TRADES IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 6-9 FT IN MIXED SE AND NW SWELL FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 119W AND 135W. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 132-139W LATE NIGHT...THEN SHRINK IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM 09N TO 15N W OF 138W BY THU NIGHT...AND DIMINISH TO 15 KT FRI AFTERNOON WITH SEAS 6-8 FT PRIMARILY IN NE SWELL AT THAT TIME. EXPECT NW-N SWELLS TO BEGIN ENTERING THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA FRI BRINGING SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9-10 FT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE LOW LEVEL NW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20- 25 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS FROM 24N TO 27N. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX LATE WED NIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE ABATED FROM THE TIME BEING AS THE RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT HAS DISAPPEARED. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT GALE EVENT WILL BEGIN ON FRI EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SAT AFTERNOON. THIS EVENT WILL BE PRECEDED BY N WINDS OF 20-30 KT BEGINNING FRI AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-10 FT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE NEXT NE 20-25 KT SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. $$ AGUIRRE