000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250317
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC WED FEB 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC. 
                  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS WSW FROM 06N90W TO 04N106W...THEN NW TO 
06N113W TO 01N132W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER AND TO THE N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N109W TO 05N124W. 

THE ITCZ IS INTERRUPTED TO THE W OF 132W BY TWO N TO S  
ORIENTATED TROUGHS. THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 03N125W 
TO 15N127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N124W TO 20N130W. THE  
WESTERNMOST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N140W TO 25N138W WITH 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM OF 07N136W.
 
...DISCUSSION... 

AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA GENERALLY N OF 02N W OF 130W WITH A WELL DEFINED UPPER 
CYCLONE EMBEDDED NEAR 15N140W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW FROM 
OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS THE TROPICS THROUGH 20N117W TO A CREST NEAR 
35N130W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND 
CYCLONE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH TWO N TO 
S ORIENTATED TROUGHS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE DENSE DEBRIS 
MOISTURE FROM THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION IS ADVECTED N COVERING 
THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 122-140W. SOME OF THIS UPPER  
MOISTURE TURNS E BETWEEN 25-30N...AND CONTINUES E AND LATER NE  
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...EVENTUALLY FEEDING INTO ANOTHER 
MOISTURE PLUME OVER TEXAS. 

THE WESTERNMOST LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING N FROM THE ITCZ IS 
EXPECTED TO SHIFT W OF 140W EARLY WED...AND THE EASTERNMOST 
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON THU. CURRENTLY AN AREA OF 
ENHANCED NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT IS OBSERVED 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF OF LINE FROM 24N140W TO 24N135W TO 
17.5N128W. THESE ENHANCED WINDS WILL SHIFT W OF THE AREA ON WED 
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE FROM 32N133W TO 13N105W...WITH 
THE TRADES SW OF THE RIDGE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 7-
10 FT IN MIXED SE AND NW SWELL. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM 11-19N 
BETWEEN 133-140W EARLY NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON 
THU NIGHT. BY THEN NORTHERLY WINDS NE OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE 
TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-12 FT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 
28N BETWEEN 118-130W. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE LOW LEVEL NW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-
25 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 25N. EXPECT THE AFFECTED AREA 
TO SHIFT TO ACROSS THE GULF WATERS S OF 27N LATER TONIGHT. THE 
GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON WED WITH WINDS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR 
LESS ON WED AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING VARIABLE AT 5-10 KT ON THU 
AFTERNOON. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-230 KT WINDS AT SUNSET ARE 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE 
IS FLUCTUATING FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT AND SUGGESTS THE NEXT 
GALE EVENT WILL BEGIN ON FRI EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY 
SAT AFTERNOON. 
                              
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE NEXT NE 20-25 KT SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE 
FRI NIGHT.

$$ 
NELSON