000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242145
TWDEP 

ZCZC MIAWRKEP 240230
TTAA00 KMIA DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC TUE FEB 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC. 
  
...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW
GALE FORCE BY SUNSET TODAY AND CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT
OR LESS LATE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS FLUCTUATING FROM ONE RUN TO 
THE NEXT AND SUGGESTS THE NEXT GALE EVENT WILL BEGIN ON FRI
EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SAT AFTERNOON. 
                      
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM 07N87W TO 04N104W TO 05N110W TO  
03N120W...AND THEN IS INTERRUPTED BY TWO EMBEDDED N TO S 
ORIENTATED TROUGHS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 60 NM OF 07N78W AND 07.5N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N108W TO 05N127W. THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM 04N123W TO 18N124W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
11N124W TO 20N126W AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM OF 05N126W. THE 
WESTERNMOST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N138W TO 24N135W WITH 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF A LINE FROM 06N140W TO 13N133W. 
 
...DISCUSSION... 

AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA GENERALLY N OF 02N W OF 129W WITH A WELL DEFINED UPPER 
CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 14N140W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW FROM 
OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS THE TROPICS THROUGH 23N115W TO A CREST NEAR 
35N131W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS 
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED IN ASSOCIATION 
WITH TWO N TO S ORIENTATED TROUGHS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE 
DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION IS ADVECTED 
N COVERING THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 122-139W. SOME OF THE 
MOISTURE TURNS E BETWEEN 25-30N...AND CONTINUES E ACROSS 
NORTHERN MEXICO AND FEEDS INTO ANOTHER MOISTURE PLUME OVER 
TEXAS. 

THE WESTERNMOST LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING N FROM THE ITCZ IS 
EXPECTED TO SHIFT W OF 140W EARLY WED...AND THE EASTERNMOST 
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON THU. CURRENTLY AN AREA OF 
ENHANCED NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT IS OBSERVED 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF OF LINE FROM 22N140W TO 23N135W TO 
18N126W. THESE ENHANCED WINDS WILL SHIFT W OF THE AREA ON WED 
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE FROM 32N135W TO 14N104W...WITH 
THE TRADES SW OF THE RIDGE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 7-
10 FT IN MIXED SE AND NW SWELL. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT NEAR 15N135W ON THU AND THU NIGHT...THEN 
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON FRI. BY THEN NORTHERLY WINDS NE OF 
THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-11 FT ACROSS THE 
WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 130-115W. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE LOW LEVEL NW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-
25 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 25N. EXPECT THE AFFECTED AREA 
TO SHIFT TO ACROSS THE GULF WATERS S OF 26N LATER TONIGHT. THE 
GRADIENT WILL FURTHER RELAX ON WED WITH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS ON 
WED AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING VARIABLE AT 5-10 KT ON THU 
AFTERNOON. 
                                
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE NEXT NE 20-25 KT SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE 
FRI NIGHT.

$$ 
NELSON