000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240331
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC TUE FEB 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC. 
  
...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY 
WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL SOON RE-ENFORCE THE 
NORTHERLY 20-30 KT FLOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
RESULTING IN 30-35 KT MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE 
ON TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 12 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE
GULF NEAR 14.5N95W. THE GRADIENT WILL THEN CONTINUE TO RELAX TUE
NIGHT WITH WINDS BELOW 20 KT BY WED MORNING. THE NEXT EVENT IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRI MORNING WITH GALE CONDITIONS ON FRI
EVENING THROUGH SUNRISE ON SAT.  
                      
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM 05N88W TO 06N124W TO THE BASE OF
AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N137W THEN CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 
08N140W. A WEAKENING TROUGH EXTENDS SW OFF THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA FROM 08N75W TO 08N81W...WITH THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
CURRENTLY DISSIPATING. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED S OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM OF OF 04N98W. 

A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS N OF FROM THE ITCZ AT 08N137W TO 20N133W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N130W TO 18N124W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 04-
21N BETWEEN 121-138W.
 
...DISCUSSION... 

AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 02N W OF 125W. AN 
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW FROM OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS THE TROPICS THROUGH 
19N111W TO A CREST NEAR 34N131W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED IN 
ASSOCIATION WITH THE ITCZ AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING N FROM THE 
ITCZ ALONG ABOUT 135W. THE DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE CONVECTION 
IS ADVECTED COVERING THE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF 120W. SOME OF THE 
MOISTURES TURNS E BETWEEN 27-32N BETWEEN 120-110W BUT EVAPORATES 
BEFORE CONTINUING E ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO.

AT THE LOW LEVELS A TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA TO OVER THE EPAC NEAR 27N126W. AS THIS TROUGH SWINGS SE 
LATER TONIGHT AND TUE THE LOW LEVEL NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 
KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND ALSO 
BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE 
GRADIENT WILL RELAX BEGINNING TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS 
EARLY WED. 
     
THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING N FROM THE ITCZ ALONG ABOUT 135W 
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT W ON TUE AND BE POSITIONED W OF 
140W EARLY WED. AN AREA OF ENHANCED NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WITH 
SEAS OF 7-9 FT CURRENTLY OBSERVED FROM 18-23N BETWEEN 128-140W 
WILL SHIFT NW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES 
W. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS 
THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 115W BY LATE FRI 
NIGHT.  
                                       
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SURGE OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE TONIGHT...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUE 
AFTERNOON.  
 
GULF OF PANAMA...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 15-20 KT CONDITIONS WILL 
DEVELOP EACH NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. 

$$ 
NELSON