000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230330 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON FEB 23 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG EASTERN MEXICO WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE-S ACROSS THE CHIVELA PASS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND LOWER PRES S OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY TUE AFTERNOON. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY TUE NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 12 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF IN NE SWELL COVERING THE WATERS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 100W BY LATE TUE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N90W TO 03N100W TO 05N120W TO 08N133W THEN RESUMES AT 08N137W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 98W...FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 125W AND 128W...AND FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 130W AND 133W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...A VIGOROUS AND SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N139W TO 19N137W TO 06N136W. A CUT-OFF LOW IS FORMING ACROSS THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 15N137W. THIS TROUGH COVERS THE AREA W OF 120W. E OF THE TROUGH...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE FORECAST REGION BETWEEN 85W AND 120W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 95W INTO SE MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE RIDGE ALSO DOMINATES MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS NOTED OVER WESTERN COLOMBIA. A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION OF THIS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 21N132W TO 08N136W. LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE VERY ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF NUMEROUS TSTMS CLUSTERS TO THE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS MAINLY FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 129W AND 132W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 132W AND 137W. SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN THE TROUGH AXIS AND 128W WITH AN AREA OF SEAS IN THE 6-7 FT RANGE. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE N WATERS WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT 24- 48 HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 KT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-9 FT WITH FRESH WIND WAVES MIXING WITH NW SWELL. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE N WATERS EXTENDING FROM A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 26N125W TO 20N108W. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA WITH NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND NW SWELLS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT. THESE SEAS WILL PROPAGATE E AND SE ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 120W ON MON THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH PERSISTING ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA ON MON. THEN...HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN SECTOR OF THIS GULF AND EXTENDS FROM 32N114W TO 30.5N115W. SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE NOTED PER AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS N OF 29.5N AND SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST TROUGH LATE MON...WITH INCREASING WINDS TO 30 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON...THEN WILL DIMINISH AS WINDS VEER TO THE NW AT 20-25 KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD SE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY LATE WED. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THIS GULF AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 09N93W. NE TO E WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUE MORNING. GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BRIEFLY INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 8 FT. $$ GR