000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222202
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SUN FEB 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 
                            
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N87W TO 04N100W TO 03N120W TO 06N134W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60-80 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 
101W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 120W 
AND 131W...AND NEAR 05N138W.  

...DISCUSSION... 

ALOFT...A TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST REGION. A 
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 05N W OF 120W. E OF THE 
TROUGH...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA BETWEEN 90W AND 
120W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 95W INTO SE MEXICO AND THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS NOTED OVER COLOMBIA. 

A RIDGE DOMINATES THE N WATERS EXTENDING FROM A WEAK 1018 MB 
HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 24N121W TO 18N110W. THIS SYSTEM IS 
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH  
IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AND EXTENDS FROM 21N129W TO 10N136W. A 
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN 120 NM 
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND N OF 10N. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT 
AHEAD OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS HELPING TO 
INDUCE THIS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WINDS AND 
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NAER THE TSTMS. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIFT 
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTEROMETER DATA 
PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ON THE 
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN THE TROUGH AXIS 
AND 128W WITH AN AREA OF SEAS IN THE 6-7 FT RANGE. THE PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE N 
WATERS WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. WINDS WILL 
INCREASE TO 25 KT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND SEAS WILL 
BUILD TO 8-9 FT WITH FRESH WIND WAVES MIXING WITH NW SWELL.

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA WITH 
NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND NW SWELLS 
RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT. THESE SEAS WILL PROPAGATE E 
AND SE TO ALONG ABOUT 120W ON MON THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. THE 
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH PERSISTING 
ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA ON MON. THEN...HIGH PRES IN THE 
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA. 
 
GAP WINDS...                 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FAR 
NORTHERN SECTOR OF THIS GULF AND EXTENDS FROM 32N114W TO 
30N115W. SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE NOTED PER AN ASCAT PASS N OF 
29.5N AND SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST 
TO PERSIST TROUGH LATE MON...WITH INCREASING WINDS TO 30 KT LATE 
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON. THEN...WILL DIMINISH AS WINDS VEER TO 
THE NW AT 20-25 KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF LATE MON NIGHT INTO 
TUE MORNING. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD SE ACROSS THE 
ENTIRE GULF TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 10-15 
KT BY WED NIGHT.     
 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG EASTERN 
MEXICO WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE-S ACROSS THE CHIVELA PASS. 
THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND LOWER PRES S OF THE 
AREA...ALONG WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INDUCE FRESH TO 
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE TONIGHT 
INTO MON MORNING WITH BUILDING SEAS UP TO 8 FT. WINDS WILL 
FURTHER INCREASE TO 25-30 KT BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH 
RAISING SEAS UP TO 11 FT. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED NE 
TO E WINDS ACROSS THIS GULF AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 09N93W. NE TO E 
WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY 
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE 
OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUE MORNING. 

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPILL INTO THE 
WESTERN GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE  
NEXT FEW DAYS...BRIEFLY INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG DURING THE 
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 
8 FT.

$$ 
GR