000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221552
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SUN FEB 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545UTC. 
                            
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM 06N87W TO 03N100W...THEN TURNS W
TO THE BASE OF AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 05N113W...THEN CONTINUES 
W THROUGH 03N120W TO THE BASE OF ANOTHER EMBEDDED TROUGH AT
06N136W...THEN CONTINUES W TO BEYOND 05N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS TO THE E OF
103W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION SURROUNDS THE EASTERNMOST
TROUGH FROM 04-14N BETWEEN 107-117W...AND IS ALSO NOTED ALONG
THE ITCZ WITHIN 150 NM OF 04N124W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
SURROUNDS THE WESTERNMOST TROUGH AND ITCZ FROM 03-12N BETWEEN 
130-137W.   

...DISCUSSION... 

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 05N W
OF 120W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS E TO W ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 
OVER COLOMBIA TO 21N118W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 12.5N137W TO 21N127W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS 
FANNING OUT FROM 12-27N BETWEEN 123-138W. ANOTHER AREA OF
UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE 
AND ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED NEAR THE 
EASTERNMOST TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE 
IS CONCENTRATED IN A 900 NM WIDE TROPICAL PLUME THAT EXTENDS NE 
ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN 107-120W...THEN CONTINUES NE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY TURNING E ACROSS THE SE CONUS.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
AREA WITH NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND
NW SWELLS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT. THESE SEAS WILL
PROPAGATE E TO ALONG ABOUT 120W ON MON THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-BUILD E ACROSS THE AREA ON MON WITH
NE TRADES INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS W
OF 120W AND N OF THE ITCZ. THESE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT
NW INTO THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS NEAR 24N138W BY MID WEEK.
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SW 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 30N THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISH AS 
THE WINDS VEER TO THE NW AT 15-20 KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON 
MON NIGHT. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD SE ACROSS THE 
ENTIRE GULF ON TUE AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ON TUE NIGHT...THEN 
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT BY WED NIGHT.    

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS...WITH SEAS TO  
10 FT...EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE 
TUE MORNING. 
                                         
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT FLOW EXPECTED THIS EVENING  
INCREASING TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS OF 5-8 FT. THESE 
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON SPREADING AS FAR W AS  
10.5N91W LATE MON NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL THEN RELAX SUPPORTING 
ONLY 15-20 KT TUE NIGHT.
 
GULF OF PANAMA...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 15-20 KT CONDITIONS WILL 
DEVELOP EACH NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. 

$$ 
NELSON