000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220915
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SUN FEB 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 
                 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
             
ITCZ FROM 7N86W TO 5N110W TO 6N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM N OF AXIS FROM 
108W-113W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM 115W-119W.

...DISCUSSION... 

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM 32N134W TO 
25N130W SEPARATES THE TROUGH FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 
30N136W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION S TO 
8N119W. SW WINDS E OF THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN 
MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION NEAR 7N94W INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
WITH DRY AND STABLE AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS E OF 100W 
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.

A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. THE 
FRONT DOES NOT HAVE STRONG WINDS...HOWEVER LARGE NW SWELL WILL 
MOVE IN WITH THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE MON NIGHT.

ELY WINDS 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO THROUGH TUE.

NLY WINDS 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL DIMINISH MON 
NIGHT.

$$
DGS