000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220331 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN FEB 22 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N88W TO 03N100W TO 05N110W TO 03N120W TO 05N127W THEN RESUMES AT 06N131W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 110W AND 112W...AND FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 116W AND 118W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 129W AND 131W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR 5.5N107W. ...DISCUSSION... A RIDGE DOMINATES THE N WATERS EXTENDING FROM A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 27N131W TO 19N110W. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND EXTENDS FROM 10N127W TO 03N128W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IS NOTED MAINLY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 129W AND 131W AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH BUT THESE WINDS APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARLIER CONVECTION IN THAT AREA. FRESH NE WINDS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PER THE MOST RECENT WINDSAT PASS. AN AREA OF SEAS IN THE 6-7 FT RANGE IN NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE N WATERS WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. WINDS WILL LOCALLY INCREASE TO 25 KT AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH FRESH WIND WAVES MIXING WITH NW SWELL. A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST REGION. A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 28N W OF 138W. THE ASSOCIATED LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS THE FAR NW CORNER OF AREA AND W OF A LINE FROM 30N138W TO 19N140W. THE FRONT WILL REACH 30N140W AROUND 22/0600 UTC EXTENDING FROM 30N137W TO 25N140W BY EARLY SUN EVENING WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. THE ASSOCIATED NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE E-SE THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH SEA HEIGHTS OF 8-9 FT COVERING THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF A LINE FROM 30N125W TO 20N130W BY MON MORNING. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO FORM ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN SECTOR OF THIS GULF TONIGHT WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING 32N114W TO 30N115W. N OF 29.5N AND SE OF THE TROUGH MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS INCREASING WINDS TO 20-30 KT AND BUILDING SEAS UP TO 8 FT BY EARLY SUN MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY LATE MON. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG EASTERN MEXICO WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE-S ACROSS THE CHIVELA PASS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND LOWER PRES S OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH BUILDING SEAS UP TO 8 FT. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 25-30 KT BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH RAISING SEAS UP TO 10 FT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EARLIER...A PAIR OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATED NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT DOWNWIND OF THIS GULF. NE TO E WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUE MORNING. GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPILL INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BRIEFLY INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 8 FT. $$ GR