000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SAT FEB 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A SHORT DURATION GALE FORCE WIND 
EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS GULF EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL 
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN 
AND CENTRAL AMERICA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT 
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH 20 KT OR 
LESS SUN NIGHT.
                   
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
              
ITCZ FROM 4N92W TO 6N125W TO 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-15N BETWEEN 118W-125W.

...DISCUSSION... 

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA EXTENDING FROM 32N136W TO 22N137W. ABUNDANT MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN THE RIDGE. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 32N128W TO 25N125W TO 
10N132W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW SE OF THE TROUGH IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 5N-15N BETWEEN 118W-125W. A BROAD 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 4N100W N INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA 
TONIGHT BRINGING 8-10 FT NW SWELL N OF 20N W OF 135W.

$$
DGS