000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170938 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE FEB 17 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO NOW. THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH A PUSH OF DENSE DRY AND COOL AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL RESULT IN WINDS TO GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL BUILD DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...REACHING AS HIGH AS 16 FEET BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...AND THEN DIMINISH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH STARTS AT THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 10N85W TO 04N90W TO 04N98W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N98W TO 04N109W TO 3N112W TO 05N120W TO 05N132W TO 07N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 03N TO 04N BETWEEN 91W AND 92W. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM SOUTH OF AXIS BETWEEN 121W AND 128W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM NORTH OF AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 127W. SURFACE TROUGH FROM 06N74W IN COLOMBIA TO 02N79W TO 01N82W TO 02N85W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 06N TO 07N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THE GULF OF PANAMA...THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA IS WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE RESULT IS THAT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS WEAKENING. THE GAP WIND PULSES THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THE GULF OF PANAMA...THAT HAVE BEEN PERSISTENTLY STRONG DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WILL BE DIMINISHING. ONE MORE BRIEF PULSE OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS IS EXPECTED IN BOTH AREAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THIS MORNING...BUT THAT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BETWEEN SUNRISE AND NOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH MODEST INCREASES OVERNIGHT DUE TO DRAINAGE EFFECTS. THE NEXT STRONG GAP EVENT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL COMMENCE ON THURSDAY AROUND SUNRISE AS THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS IN THE GULF. A NEGATIVELY TILTED MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N137W TO 23N134W TO 17N130W TO 07N130W. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N134W TO 30N134W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 30N134W TO 25N136W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 09N TO 10N BETWEEN 126W AND 127W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N134W 22N130W 16N128W 12N128W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 117W AND 124W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN MEXICO AND 114W. SOME OF THE MOISTURE ALREADY COVERS MEXICO FROM 16N TO 27N...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N129W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 110W AND THE 32N134W 25N136W COLD FRONT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE 32N137W- TO-07N130W TROUGH WILL STALL AND BECOME CUTOFF NEAR 26N132W BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL AND DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FROM 30N134W TO 20N139W. SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND EARLIER SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA INDICATED GENERALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT. ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA INDICATED SEAS TO 14 BEHIND THE FRONT HOWEVER...LIKELY IN NW SWELL. THIS LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY GRADUALLY...TO LESS THAN 8 FEET DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. $$ MT