000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162150
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC MON FEB 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE 
GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH A 
PUSH OF DENSE DRY AND COOL AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS IN 
SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL RESULT IN WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD DOWNSTREAM OF 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...REACHING AS HIGH AS 16 FT BY LATE WED. 
THE GALES WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...THEN DIMINISH AS 
THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST.
                   
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 04N90W...WHERE IT 
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ. THE ITCZ CONTINUES WESTWARD FROM 04N90W 
TO 05N115W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM 125W TO 130W.

...DISCUSSION... 
 
THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE 
NORTH OF THE AREA IS WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST AHEAD OF A COLD 
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TEXAS. THIS IS RESULTING IN A WEAKENING 
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN. THIS IS IN 
TURN ALLOWING THE GAP WIND PULSES THROUGH THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO 
AND PANAMA THAT HAVE BEEN PERSISTENTLY STRONG OVER THE PAST 
SEVERAL DAYS TO DIMINISH. ONE MORE BRIEF PULSE OF 20 TO 25 KT 
WINDS IS EXPECTED IN BOTH AREAS LATE THIS EVENING AND 
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING. LIGHT 
TO MODERATE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS...WITH MODEST INCREASES OVERNIGHT DUE TO DRAINAGE EFFECTS. 
THE NEXT STRONG GAP EVENT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL COMMENCE 
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS OVER 
THE GULF.
 
1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 30N125W...BLOCKING THE 
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT FARTHER WEST REACHING FROM 35N135W TO 
22N140W. A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORTING THE COLD 
FRONT IS PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. 
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING 
AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT FROM 22N TO 
25N.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THE TROUGH WILL 
STALL AND BECOME CUTOFF NEAR 26N132W BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS 
WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS FROM 30N133W TO 20N140W. 

SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND EARLIER SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA 
INDICATED GENERALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT...WITH 15 TO 20 KT NORTHWEST WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT. 
ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA INDICATED SEAS TO 14 BEHIND THE FRONT 
HOWEVER...LIKELY IN NW SWELL. THIS LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL WILL 
FOLLOW THE FRONT. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY BELOW 8 FT 
OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN