000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160953 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON FEB 16 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N88W TO 05N90W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N90W TO 03N100W TO 03N105W TO 05N112W TO 04N122W TO 07N135W TO 07N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 134W AND 137W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 129W AND 132W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 13N110W 06N112W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF LINE 10N106W TO 09N109W TO 08N112W TO 06N118W. FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 105W AND 112W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 08N76W TO 05N79W TO 01N82W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE WIND SPEEDS HAVE SLOWED DOWN TO LESS THAN GALE-FORCE. SCATTEROMETER WINDS FROM 16/0356 UTC SHOW 25 KT WIND SPEEDS AT SALINA CRUZ...AND AT LEAST 20 KNOT WIND SPEEDS FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. EXPECT THESE WIND SPEEDS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 10 FEET. MORE GALE-FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TO START AFTER SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY...AND TO LAST FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS AFTER IT BEGINS. THE MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 12 FEET TO 16 FEET DURING THE GALE-FORCE WIND EVENT. THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS ARE ALLOWING ONE MORE PULSE OF NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS NOW AND FOR THE NEXT 30 HOURS. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENTS WILL CREATE FRESH NE TO E SWELL THAT WILL MERGE WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL...RESULTING IN SEA HEIGHTS THAT WILL RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 11 FEET IN AN AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM 02N TO 12N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W ON MONDAY. THE GULF OF FONSECA...THE WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH TIME TO 20 KT OR LESS ON MONDAY...AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THE GULF OF PANAMA...THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA...REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS 05N. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AS HIGH AS 9 FEET GIVEN THE STRENGTH...FETCH AND DURATION OF THESE WINDS. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY TO THE NORTH OF 05N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN THAN 8 FEET THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. IT IS GENERATING SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER IS WEAKENING NEAR 24N125W. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT IS AHEAD OF THESE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT ABUNDANT MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 36N145W TO 31N142W TO 27N144W TO 23N140W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT JUST HAS ENTERED THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO 30N134 26N135W...DISSIPATING FROM 26N135W 19N140W IN 24 HOURS...BECOMING STATIONARY NEAR THE SAME LINE 12 HOURS LATER. THE SWELL THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THE SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 TO 12 FEET IN 12 HOURS...AND TO 8 TO 13 FEET IN 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 300 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT FROM 17N NORTHWARD. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...THAT IS MOVING AROUND A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N127W...COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 115W AND 138W. $$ MT