000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160323
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC MON FEB 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC. 
                     
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N90W TO 05N110W TO 04N122W TO 09N136W TO 
08N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. DURING THE WINTER SEASON... 
THE NE PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS MUCH WEAKER THAN DURING THE 
SUMMER AND THERE WILL BE TIMES WHEN IT IS NON-EXISTENT LIKE THIS 
EVENING. INSTEAD...A SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN ANALYZED NEAR THE 
COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. 
 
...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE 
ACROSS THE GULF AND THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED N OF 14N BETWEEN 94W 
AND 96W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING WITH THE AID OF 
THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS OF 8-10 FT ARE STILL NOTED 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF PER THE MOST RECENT ALTIMETER PASS. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO DIMINISH 
FURTHER TO 20 KT OR LESS BY LATE MON MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD...  
ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY WED AS ANOTHER 
COLD FRONT SWEEPS N OF THE AREA FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRES. 
MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30-40 KT AND 
BUILDING SEAS OF 15-16 FT WITH THIS NEW GAP WIND EVENT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO 
SUPPORT STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LOCAL 
DRAINAGE EFFECTS WILL ALLOW ONE MORE PULSE OF STRONG WINDS 
MONDAY MORNING. THE REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND 
ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH LATE MONDAY.

THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP WIND 
EVENTS WILL CREATE FRESH NE TO E SWELL THAT WILL MERGE WITH 
LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL...RESULTING IN SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT IN AN 
AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM 02N TO 12N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W ON MON.

GULF OF FONSECA...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR 
LESS TONIGHT AND MON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS 
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.  

GULF OF PANAMA...AN ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED ONGOING FRESH TO STRONG 
NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA INTO THE GULF 
OF PANAMA...REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS 03N. SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO 
BE AS HIGH AS 9 FT GIVEN THE STRENGTH...FETCH AND DURATION OF 
THESE WINDS. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST 
THROUGH EARLY TUE N OF 06N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W. THEN...THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA...ALLOWING WINDS 
TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT THROUGH 
LATE TUE.

A CUT-OFF LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS PARTS 
OF NW MEXICO. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N127W 
PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW TO 
NEAR 10N130W. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THESE UPPER-LEVEL 
FEATURES CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. 
 
A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE NOTED WITHIN THE ITCZ. ONE EXTENDS 
FROM 13N110W TO 06N111W. A RECENT RAPIDSCAT INDICATED THE WIND 
SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 105W AND 
112W. THE SECOND TROUGH IS FARTHER WEST AND EXTENDS FROM 13N130W 
TO 08N133W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 07N 
TO 10N BETWEEN 128W AND 131W. 

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH LOCATED NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS 
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW APPROACHING THE FAR NW PART 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEST OF 140W MOVING EASTWARD. SCATTEROMETER 
DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOW FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY 
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 26N W OF 138W. THE COLD 
FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE FORECAST REGION TONIGHT EXTENDING 
FROM FROM 30N136W TO 23N140W EARLY MON. LONG PERIOD SWELLS WITH 
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 9 TO 13 FT ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FRONT...AS 
IT MOVES EAST AND REACHES FROM 30N133W TO 20N139W BY EARLY 
TUE...BEFORE STALLING AND WEAKENING BY EARLY WED. A WEAK HIGH 
PRES OF 1018 MB LOCATED NEAR 31N125W DOMINATES THE N WATERS 
MAINLY N OF 17N E OF 135W. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE 
FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES 
ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA. 
  
$$ 
GR