000 AXPZ20 KNHC 152156 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN FEB 15 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 04N90W TO 03N100W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N100W TO 06N112W TO 09N130W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE ACROSS THE GULF BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE STILL NOTED. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEFINED ROPE CLOUD MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHICH LIKELY DELINEATES THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CURRENT GAP WIND EVENT. THIS ROPE CLOUD IS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS 10N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH EARLY MONDAY TO 20 KT OR LESS. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY WED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS N OF THE AREA FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRES. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS WILL ALLOW ONE MORE PULSE OF STRONG WINDS TOMORROW MORNING. THE REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENTS WILL CREATE FRESH NE TO E SWELL THAT WILL MERGE WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL...RESULTING IN SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT IN AN AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM 02N TO 11N BETWEEN 92W AND 110W ON MON. GULF OF FONSECA...THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXTENDING DOWNWIND OF THE GULF TO NEAR 11N90W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOW THESE GAP WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY. GULF OF PANAMA...AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM THIS MORNING CONFIRMED ONGOING STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PANAMA ISTHMUS INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA...REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS 02N. SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AS HIGH AS 10 FT GIVEN THE STRENGTH... FETCH AND DURATION OF THESE WINDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GOVERNING THE GAP FLOW WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT THROUGH LATE MONDAY. A CUT-OFF LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE BAY OF SEBASTIAN VISCAINO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA MAINLY FROM 26N TO 29N AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE OF SONORA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO NW MEXICO BY EARLY MON. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N125W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW TO NEAR 10N130W. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGH ARE NOTED WITHIN THE ITCZ. ONE EXTENDS FROM 11N108W TO 05N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 107W AND 111W. THE SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N125W TO 07N128W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 126W AND 130W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH LOCATED NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW APPROACHING THE FAR NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEST OF 140W MOVING EASTWARD. SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOW FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 25N W OF 137W. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE FORECAST REGION TONIGHT EXTENDING FROM 30N137W TO 22N140W EARLY MON. LONG PERIOD SWELLS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 9 TO 14 FT ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FRONT...AS IT MOVES EAST AND REACHES FROM 30N132W TO 20N138W BY TUE MORNING... BEFORE STALLING AND WEAKENING BY EARLY WED. $$ GR