000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151600 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN FEB 15 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LOCAL OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE EFFECTS ALONG WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE ITCZ ARE ALLOWING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO BLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS...BRINGING THE WIND SPEEDS TO GALE-FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING. THE WINDS ARE TRENDING DOWN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING BELOW GALE FORCE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH EARLY MONDAY TO 20 KT OR LESS. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY WED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS N OF THE AREA FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRES. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...LIKELY REACHING GALE FORCE THIS MORNING THE ADDED ASSISTANCE OF LOCAL DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH LATE MORNING. LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS WILL ALLOW ONE MORE PULSE OF STRONG WINDS TOMORROW MORNING. THE REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENTS WILL CREATE FRESH NE TO E SWELL THAT WILL MERGE WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL...RESULTING IN SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT IN AN AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM 02N TO 13N BETWEEN 92W AND 110W THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 04N90W TO 03N100W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ...WHICH CONTINUES FROM 09N84W TO 09N130W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF FONSECA...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WERE AGAIN NOTED THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHERN HONDURAS AT CHOLUTECA (MHCH) ALONG WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KT AT AMAPALA ISLAND (MHAM). THIS IS LESS THAN YESTERDAY MORNING...BUT HINTS OF ANOTHER PULSE OF STRONG GAP WINDS ENTERING THE GULF OF FONSECA DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOW THESE GAP WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY. GULF OF PANAMA...AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM LAST NIGHT CONFIRMED ONGOING STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PANAMA ISTHMUS INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA...REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS 02N. SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AS HIGH AS 11 FT GIVEN THE STRENGTH...FETCH AND DURATION OF THESE WINDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GOVERNING THE GAP FLOW WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT THROUGH LATE MONDAY. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A AN UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 27N116W SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURES IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W ALONG AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH FROM 12N107W TO 07N110W. A LINE OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EAST OF ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE...REACHING FROM 19N114W TO 13N118W. FARTHER NORTH NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER CYCLONE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO ACTIVE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACTIVE THIS MORNING OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AND NORTHERN ECUADOR...INFLUENCED IN LARGE PART BY NOCTURNAL OFFSHORE DRAINAGE BREEZES CONVERGING WITH STRONG GAP WINDS EMERGING OUT OF THE GULF OF PANAMA AND LIGHTER SW BREEZES. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS SUPPORTING AN COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FAR NW DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N140W. THE SUPPORTING NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF 140W MOVING EASTWARD. SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOWS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE PAST 140W OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH ACCOMPANYING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 KT OR LESS AS UPPER DYNAMICS WEAKEN AND LIFT NE. LONG PERIOD SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 12 FT ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FRONT...AS IT MOVES EAST AND REACHES FROM 32N130W TO 21N140W BY EARLY TUE...BEFORE STALLING AND WEAKENING BY EARLY WED. $$ CHRISTENSEN