000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141559
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SAT FEB 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1500 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1800 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH 
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND LOWER PRESSURE 
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE ITCZ...IS ALLOWING STRONG NORTHERLY 
WINDS TO BLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS...DELIVERING WINDS TO 
GALE FORCE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS PATTERN IS 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST 
WINDS OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO LOCAL DRAINAGE 
FLOW. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH 
MONDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA 
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS 
INDICATED ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WEDNESDAY.

GULF OF FONSECA...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO 
IS ENHANCING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF 
GUATEMALA...HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR. ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT 
DRAINAGE FLOW...THIS IS ALLOW WINDS TO GALE FORCE DOWNSTREAM OF 
THE GULF OF FONSECA THIS MORNING. SHIP PHEO PROVIDED EVIDENCE OF 
THIS OFF FONSECA A FEW HOURS AGO...ALONG WITH OBSERVATIONS AT 
CHOLUTECA SHOWING 30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX 
TONIGHT ALLOWING THE WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AS WITH FONSECA AND TEHUANTEPEC...THE TIGHT 
GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA WILL ENHANCE 
STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...REACHING 
GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT WITH ADDED SUPPORT FROM LOCAL DRAINAGE FLOW 
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE RELAXING GRADIENT WILL 
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH 
20 TO 25 KT TO SEAS TO 9 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH 
FURTHER THROUGH MONDAY.
                        
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N85W TO 10N115W TO 10N120W TO 05N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ.
 
...DISCUSSION... 

NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED 
THIS MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF A SURFACE TROUGH REACHING FROM 
13N105W TO 08N107W. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM 
18N110W TO NEAR THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO 
INTERACTING WITH MORNING LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCING 
AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. 

IN ADDITION TO STRONG GAP WIND EVENTS THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO...INCREASING N TO NE WIND FLOW OVER THE 
SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO SPILL ACROSS PANAMA AND ACROSS THE 
GULF OF PANAMA...WITH SEAS TO 10 FT.

THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP EVENTS 
WILL CREATE MERGING NORTHEASTERLY SWELL OVER AN AREA FROM 03N TO 
13N BETWEEN 85W AND 110W BY LATE SUNDAY.

SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 10 FT SEAS COVER THE AREA THAT IS 
TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
NORTE TO 08N140W. THESE HIGHER SEAS ARE THE RESULT OF AN EARLIER 
TRAIN OF NW SWELL. THE WAVE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SWELL WILL 
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.

A NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL 
ACCOMPANY AND WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE FAR NW 
CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY 48 HOURS.
  
$$ 
CHRISTENSEN