000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141004 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT FEB 14 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS COVERING THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND LOWER PRESSURE THAT IS ALONG THE ITCZ...IS ALLOWING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO BLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS...AND TO EXIT TO THE SOUTH AS GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO LOCAL DRAINAGE FLOW. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR 45 KT DURING THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THIS MORNING...AND 40 KT SAT NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SERIES OF DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DOMINATING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...HAS FORCED HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WHICH HAS INDUCED MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 78W. REINFORCING HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO NOW IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE SIGNIFICANTLY GAP WIND FLOW FUNNELING ACROSS MOUNTAIN PASSES OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA AND ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LATE AND EARLY MORNING DRAINAGE WILL ENHANCE THE FLOW. THE WIND SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED TO GALE FORCE NOW...AND THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AT GALE-FORCE AGAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. 25 KNOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE ZONES THAT TYPICALLY ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THIS FLOW...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA AND THE GULF OF NICOYA. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO DIMINISH. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ IS ALONG 02N84W TO 03N95W TO 06N103W TO 06N110W TO 09N114W...TO 10N121W TO 05N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 97W AND 107W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 104W/105W FROM 07N TO 13N. NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 18N104W TO 16N106W TO 13N108W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 08N74W TO 4N78W TO 00N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. ...DISCUSSION... IN ADDITION TO STRONG GAP WIND EVENTS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO...INCREASING N TO NE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN HAS ALSO BEGUN TO SPILL ACROSS PANAMA AND ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA...WHERE NORTHERLY WINDS 20-25 KT HAVE SPREAD SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 05N THIS EVENING. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-30 KT TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO 03N TO 04N...WITH BUILDING SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP EVENTS WILL CREATE MERGING NORTHEASTERLY SWELL OVER AN AREA FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 85W AND 108W BY LATE SUNDAY. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 27N115W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 07N125W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 18N104W TO 16N106W TO 13N108W. SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 10 FT SEAS COVER THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TO 03N140W. THESE HIGHER SEAS ARE THE RESULT OF AN EARLIER TRAIN OF NW SWELL. THE WAVE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SWELL WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. $$ MT