000 AXPZ20 KNHC 132214 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI FEB 13 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE ITCZ IS ALLOWING NORTHERLY STRONG WINDS TO BLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS...AND EXIT TO THE SOUTH AS GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO LOCAL DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. GULF OF PAPAGAYO... A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DOMINATING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS FORCED HIGH PRES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN...WHICH HAS INDUCED MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. REINFORCING HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE THE GAP WIND FLOW FUNNELING ACROSS MOUNTAIN PASSES OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA AND ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LOCAL OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE WILL ENHANCE THIS FLOW...RESULTING IN WINDS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING...AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING. IN FACT...THESE DOWNSLOPE GAP WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE ZONES TYPICALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO THIS FLOW...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA AND THE GULF OF NICOYA. THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO DIMINISH. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N86W TO 02.5N95W TO LOW PRES NEAR 07N101W 1010 MB...TO 05N110W TO 10N117W TO 05N130W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 97W AND 104W...AND WITHIN 180 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 107W AND 110W. ...DISCUSSION... IN ADDITION TO STRONG GAP WIND EVENTS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO...INCREASING N TO NE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN HAS ALSO BEGUN TO SPILL ACROSS PANAMA AND ENTER INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA...WHERE NLY WINDS 20-25 KT HAVE SPREAD SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 05N LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-30 KT TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO 03N TO 04N...AND BUILDING SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. THE COMBINED IMPACTS OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP EVENTS WILL CREATE MERGING FRESH EASTERLY SWELL OVER AN AREA FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 85W AND 105W BY LATE SATURDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH A TROUGH REACHING SW TOWARD 15N120W. THIS IS HELPING TO DRAW LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS NE TO WESTERN MEXICO...AND ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ...AS WELL AS WITHIN 300 NM OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN ACAPULCO TO EXTREME SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE UPPER LOW IS SOUTH OF A BLOCKING RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IS LIFTING NW OF THIS RIDGE...RESULTING IN A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. MEANWHILE SUCCESSIVE ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS CONFIRM 8 TO 12 FT SEAS OVER AN AREA WEST OF A LINE FROM NORTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TO NEAR 05N140W. THESE HIGHER SEAS ARE THE RESULT OF AN EARLIER TRAIN OF NW SWELL. WAVE MODELS INDICATE THIS SWELL WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. $$ STRIPLING