000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131527
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC FRI FEB 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH 
PRES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE ALONG 
THE ITCZ IS ALLOWING STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE CHIVELA PASS...WITH 
GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS PATTERN 
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST 
WINDS OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO LOCAL DRAINAGE 
FLOW. WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE 
NORTH OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...TRADE WIND FLOW WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE 
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE BASIN. 
THE TRADE WINDS WILL FUNNEL STRONG WINDS ACROSS MOUNTAIN PASSES 
THROUGH COSTA RICA AND INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LOCAL 
OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE WILL ENHANCE THIS FLOW...RESULTING IN WINDS 
TO GALE FORCE SAT MORNING AND AGAIN ON SUN MORNING. THE HIGH 
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST BY EARLY 
NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 
DIMINISH.
                             
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N85W TO LOW PRES NEAR 06N100W 1009 
MB...TO 05N110W TO 10N117W TO 05N130W TO BEYOND 05N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ACTIVE 
WITHIN 180 NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 97W AND 104W...AND WITHIN 
180 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 107W AND 110W. 
 
...DISCUSSION... 

IN ADDITION TO STRONG GAP WIND EVENTS THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO...INCREASING TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE 
SW CARIBBEAN WILL ALSO ENTER INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA...MAINLY 
STARTING TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS WILL 
BUILD TO 9 FT BY LATE SATURDAY WITH 20 TO 25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS 
REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS 04N.

THE COMBINED IMPACTS OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP EVENTS 
WILL CREATE MERGING FRESH EASTERLY SWELL OVER AN AREA FROM 06N 
TO 14N BETWEEN 85W AND 105W BY LATE SATURDAY.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED IS CENTERED OVER THE 
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH A TROUGH REACHING SW TOWARD 
15N120W. THIS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ...AS WELL 
AS WITHIN 300 NM OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN ACAPULCO TO THE 
MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. 
 
THE UPPER LOW IS SOUTH OF A BLOCKING RIDGE CENTERED OVER 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
PACIFIC IS LIFTING NW OF THIS RIDGE...RESULTING IN A STALLED 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

MEANWHILE SUCCESSIVE ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES OVER THE PAST 
SEVERAL HOURS CONFIRM 8 TO 12 FT SEAS OVER AN AREA WEST OF A 
LINE FROM NORTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TO NEAR 
05N140W. THESE HIGHER SEAS ARE THE RESULT OF AN EARLIER TRAIN OF 
NW SWELL. WAVE MODELS INDICATE THIS SWELL WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 
FT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.
  
$$ 
CHRISTENSEN