000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130303 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI FEB 13 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO STRONG GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE BY FRI AFTERNOON...TO 40 KT...THEN TO 35 KT SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD FINALLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATE SUN MORNING...WITH 20-25 KT FLOW EXPECTED LATE SUN NIGHT THEN DIMINISHING TO 20 KT ON SUN AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RESULTANT NE SWELL TO MIX WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT AS FAR S AS 04N BETWEEN 92-110W ON SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT EARLY TUE. GULF OF PANAMA...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT STRONG GAP WIND FLOW INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE BY SAT AFTERNOON. SEAS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL BUILD TO NEAR 12 FT LATE FRI. SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL MERGE FROM SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT AS MENTIONED ABOVE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 06N87W TO LOW PRES NEAR 06N97W TO 08N111W TO 06N130W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 45 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND 118W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 17N118W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W...AND FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 113W AND 120W. ...DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OF 1022 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 38N127W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 22N140W WHILE A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL NW OF THE AREA HAS STALLED OVER THE FAR NW WATERS. THE STALLED FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY SAT. NW SWELL GENERATED FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NW OF THE AREA HAS PEAKED AND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE WHILE SPREADING SE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHEST SEAS ARE IN THE 11 FT RANGE OVER THE FAR NW WATERS WHILE SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER ARE COVERING THE AREA W OF LINE FROM W OF LINE FROM 30N120W TO 04N137W. SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL REACH FROM W OF LINE FROM 30N115W TO 24N115W TO 05N130W FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE. BY SAT EVENING SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL ONLY COVER THE AREA N OF 26N BETWEEN 125W AND 132W AND FROM 07N TO 16N W OF 135W. THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN THAT WILL HELP GENERATE THE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO IS ALSO SUPPORTING STRONG GAP WIND FLOW INTO PANAMA. THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN THROUGH LATE FRI AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP FOR WINDS TO REACH 30 KT OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN NORTH OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. BY FRI AFTERNOON..WINDS WILL FALL TO 20 KT OR LESS. $$ AL