000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122128
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC THU FEB 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE WILL HELP FOR WINDS TO FUNNEL 
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS 
WILL RAPIDLY RAMP UP TO GALE FORCE THIS EVENING AND FURTHER 
INCREASE TO STRONG GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI 
MORNING. WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE BY FRI AFTERNOON...TO 40 
KT...THROUGH SAT MORNING...THEN TO 35 KT SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS 
SHOULD FINALLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATE SUN MORNING...WITH 
20-25 KT FLOW EXPECTED LATE SUN NIGHT THEN DIMINISHING TO 20 KT 
ON SUN AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RESULTANT NE SWELL TO MIX WITH 
CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT AS 
FAR S AS 04N BETWEEN 92-110W ON SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...WITH 
SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT EARLY TUE.

GULF OF PANAMA...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT 
MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL 
SUPPORT STRONG GAP WIND FLOW INTO THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT. 
WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO 
EARLY SAT MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE BY SAT 
AFTERNOON. SEAS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL BUILD TO NEAR 12 
FT LATE FRI. SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL 
MERGE FROM SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP 
WIND EVENT AS MENTIONED ABOVE. 
                             
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N84W TO 04N106W TO 07N118W TO BEYOND 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED
WITHIN 45 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 120W. 

DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED 
NEAR 17120W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 105W AND 111W...AND FROM 15N 
TO 20N BETWEEN 112W AND 120W

...DISCUSSION... 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1021 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 38N127W 
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 22N140W WHILE A COLD FRONT 
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL NW OF THE AREA IS JUST MOVING 
INTO THE FAR NW WATERS. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD 
SOUTHWARD WHICH WILL HELP STALL THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NW 
WATERS BY FRI...THEN DISSIPATE BY SAT. NW SWELL GENERATED FROM 
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NW OF THE AREA HAS PEAKED AND CONTINUES 
TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE WHILE SPREADING SE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHEST 
SEAS ARE IN THE 13 FT RANGE OVER THE FAR NW WATERS WHILE SEAS 8 
FT OR GREATER IS COVERING THE AREA W OF LINE FROM 30N122W TO 
05N140W. SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL REACH FROM W OF LINE FROM 
30N115W TO 24N115W TO 05N130W FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING IN 
COVERAGE. 

THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH 
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN THAT WILL HELP GENERATE 
THE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO 
WILL ALSO SUPPORT STRONG GAP WIND FLOW INTO PANAMA STARTING 
TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGH LATE FRI AS THE HIGH PRES 
BUILDS N OF THE REGION WITH WINDS REACHING 30 KT OVER THE GULF 
OF PANAMA. 

STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN NORTH OF THE AREA 
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS ALONG THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY 
SAT AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. 
  
$$ 
AL