000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102159
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC TUE FEB 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...                          
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA WITHIN 30 NM OF 95W 
FROM 14N TO 16N INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE 
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WED. 
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WED AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE 
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. 
                              
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 5N89W ALONG 3N94W 2N105W WHERE THE  
ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N116W 7N132W TO 6N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.      
 
...DISCUSSION...                                                
THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS MOVING 
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO COUPLED WITH COLD AIR NIGHTTIME 
DRAINAGE ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE ARE SHORT LIVED AND WILL BE BELOW 
GALE FORCE EARLY ON WED THEN BELOW STRONG BREEZES BY WED 
EVENING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD AIR AND 
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL AGAIN BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THU EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE 
WEEKEND.  

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS MOST OF THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 140W 
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS 
FRONT WILL WEAKEN BEFORE ENTERING THE AREA BUT IS BRINGING 
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THE NW PORTION. SWELLS WILL INCREASE TO 
17 FT BEFORE SUBSIDING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NE. A SURFACE RIDGE 
COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 117W AND IS CENTERED BY A 1025 MB 
HIGH NEAR 36N127W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING S TO 15N152W. THIS 
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BLOCK THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT 
TO THE NW FROM ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA. A NARROW UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N121W ALONG 20N121W TO 6N120W GIVING 
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA FROM N OF 24N BETWEEN 116W AND 
122W. THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.
                                            
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED AND AGAIN ON WED NIGHT/THU 
MORNING. BOTH EVENTS WILL ADVANCE STRONG WINDS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 
A MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT WILL OCCUR EARLY FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. 

GULF OF PANAMA...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING NORTHERLY STRONG WINDS 
TO DEVELOP EARLY FRI COINCIDING WITH THE EVENTS IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AND THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS 
EVENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. 
  
$$ 
PAW