000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100947 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE FEB 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A NORTHERLY SURGE CURRENTLY AT 20-25 KT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO A 25-35 KT MINIMAL GALE DURING MAXIMUM DRAINAGE JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE THUS MORNING. THE GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 13 FT NEAR 14N95W. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING...THEN SURGE AGAIN TO 30 KT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS LATE WED MORNING. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE NORTHERLY DRAINAGE WILL MAX AT 25 KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...AND THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THU TO MINIMUM GALE FORCE ON THU EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN WITH A STRONG GALE EVENT OF 45 KT EXPECTED LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SEAS MAY BUILD AS HIGH AS 19 FT NEAR 14N96W AROUND SUNRISE FRI. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ON SAT WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF MINIMAL GALE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING. THE NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM DRAINAGE WILL INCREASE THE AREA OF GALE WINDS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNRISE ON SUN...THEN THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH ON SUN. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... AN ILL-DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 10N86W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT 06N89W...THEN CONTINUES W FROM THE LOW PRES TO 03N105W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH THEN WIGGLES W BETWEEN 02-05N TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 75 NM OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THE SOUTHERN END OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE TROPICS ALONG 20N120W TO 05N115W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS ENHANCING AND AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N110W TO 12N124W. ...DISCUSSION... A SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED AT 33N128W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 10N90W. THE GRADIENT E OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS SUPPORTING NW-N 20-25 KT WINDS ALONG THE EPAC WATERS N OF 28N E OF 120W TO THE N COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS MORNING...WITH SEAS OF 9-12 FT. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME ORIENTATED FROM 32N129W TO 20N140W LATER TODAY...WITH THE GRADIENT E OF THE RIDGE AXIS RELAXING...BUT THE GRADIENT W OF THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT W OF LINE FROM 32N133W TO 24N140W TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-13 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW PORTION BUT LOSE IDENTITY IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ON WED. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON THU WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW WATERS THU EVENING...BUT STALLING BY FRI AFTERNOON. THE NEW BATCH OF NW SWELLS WILL ALMOST REACH THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON FRI BUT HAVE SUBSIDED TO 6-7 FT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG ENE WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 7 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHTS. THE THU NIGHT EVENT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT WITH THE NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 KT AROUND SUNRISE FRI. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A VERY SIGNIFICANT PAPAGAYO EVENT ON FRI AND SAT NIGHTS...WITH NEAR GALE CONDITIONS. GULF OF PANAMA...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS DEVELOPING ON FRI AFTERNOON NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON... DIMINISHING ON SUN. $$ NELSON