000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100311
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC TUE FEB 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY FLOW HAS STARTED OVER THE SW 
GULF OF MEXICO. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVERNIGHT...AND WINDS 
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY TUE MORNING. THIS WILL BE A SHORT 
LIVED GALE WIND EVENT AS WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL VEER 
TUE. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE 
FORCE BY TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO FURTHER DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR 
LESS BY WED NIGHT. SEAS WILL PEAK AROUND 13 FT DURING THE PERIOD 
OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY WED EVENING.
                             
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N86W TO LOW PRES NEAR 06N87W 
TO 03N107W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ 
WHICH EXTENDS TO 05N116W TO 04N125W TO 06N135W TO BEYOND 
05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION... 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N129W 
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 17N110W AND SW TO BEYOND 
26N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A TROUGH 
OVER WESTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF THE 
WESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ 
IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 20N 
AND W OF 125W. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT NE OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 
ASSOCIATED WINDS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AS WELL 
AS THE TRADES N OF THE ITCZ BY TUE AFTERNOON. 

NW SWELL CURRENTLY DOMINATES THE AREA WITH SEAS TO 8 FT COVERING 
THE AREA W OF LINE 30N116W TO 22N115W TO 06N132W. THE SEAS WILL 
SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND BY WED EVENING 
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT. 

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS 
WILL INCREASE WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 
THE FAR NW WATERS BY TUE AFTERNOON. THE NEAR GALE WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE OVER THE NW WATERS THOUGH WED. THE SYSTEM WILL USHER IN 
A FRESH SET OF NW SWELLS...MIXING WITH THE SOUTHERLY SWELLS... 
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 17 FT BY WED EVENING. 

GAP WINDS....                                                    
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PULSING OF FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY WED MORNING WITH 
THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. 
  
$$ 
AL