000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091010 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON FEB 09 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NEXT NORTHERLY SURGE AT 20-25 KT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND QUICKLY INCREASE TO A 25-35 KT MINIMAL GALE DURING MAXIMUM DRAINAGE JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE ON TUE MORNING. THE GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 14 FT NEAR 14N95W. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME TUE EVENING...THEN SURGE AGAIN TO 30 KT LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS LATE WED MORNING. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE NORTHERLY DRAINAGE WILL MAX AT 25 KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...BUT CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THU TO MINIMUM GALE FORCE ON THU EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN WITH A STRONG GALE EVENT OF 45 KT EXPECTED LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ON SAT WITH WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE ON SAT AFTERNOON. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... AN ILL-DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 10N86W THROUGH AN EMBEDDED 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE AT 05N88W TO ANOTHER 1014 MB EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE AT 05N93W...THEN CONTINUES W TO 04N100W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES W TO 05N112W TO BEYOND 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N84W TO 05N90W. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR 07N122W WITH SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATING AN ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N129W TO 12N125W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE IS ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 720 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... A SURFACE HIGH PREVIOUSLY NEAR 26N123W BLOCKED THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT TO ALONG 32N121W TO 25N129W WHERE IT NOW ANALYZED AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH SHOULD LOSE IDENTITY TODAY. A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 26N136W WITH A RIDGE AXIS TO THE E ALREADY BRIDGING THROUGH THE FRONTAL TROUGH. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO RACE NE TO NEAR 31N131W THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 10N90W. LARGE NW SWELLS WILL SOON REACH THE NW COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 7-9 FT COMBINED SEAS...WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SPREAD S ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST OF BAJA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN E OF THE RIDGE AXIS LATER TODAY INCREASING NW WINDS TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT NEAR 30N117W. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX E OF A N TO S RIDGE AXIS FROM 32N127W TO 10N115W ON TUE...BUT TIGHTEN W OF THE RIDGE WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING TO 20-30 KT N OF 27N W OF 137W ON TUE EVENING THROUGH WED. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AHEAD A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FAR NW WATERS ON THU. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG ENE WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 7 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TUE NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHTS. THE THU NIGHT EVENT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT WITH THE NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 KT ON FRI. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A VERY SIGNIFICANT PAPAGAYO EVENT ON FRI NIGHT...WITH NEAR GALE CONDITIONS. GULF OF PANAMA...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING NORTHERLY 20-30 KT WINDS FRI NIGHT AND SAT...DIMINISHING ON SUN. $$ NELSON