000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090545 CCA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON FEB 09 2015 COR FOR UTC RELEASE TIME TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NEXT NORTHERLY SURGE AT 20-30 KT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON MON NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 25-35 KT MINIMAL GALE FORCE DURING MAXIMUM DRAINAGE JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE ON TUE...AND CONTINUE INTO TUE AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 15 FT NEAR 14N95W. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME TUE EVENING...THEN SURGE AGAIN TO 30 KT LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS LATE WED MORNING. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE NORTHERLY DRAINAGE WILL MAX AT 25 KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...BUT CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THU TO MINIMUM GALE FORCE THU EVENING. A STRONG GALE OF 45 KT IS EXPECTED LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE BY SAT EVENING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 10N86W THROUGH AN 1010 MB EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT 06N90W...WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING W TO 05N100W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES W TO THE BAS- KMIA 090350 WRKEP E OF AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 06N123W...WITH THE ITCZ THEN DIPPING SW TO BEYOND 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N84W TO 04N94W. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR 07N124W WITH SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATING AN ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL TROUGH HAS FORMED FROM 06N123W TO 13.5N122W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CYCLONE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AND MAINLY E OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WITHIN THE AREA BOUNDED BY 04-12N BETWEEN 116-125W. ...DISCUSSION... A SURFACE HIGH NEAR 26N125W HAS BLOCKED THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT TO ALONG 32N123W TO 25N131W WHERE IT NOW ANALYZED AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH SHOULD LOSE IDENTITY ON MON. A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 22N134W IS EXPECTED TO RACE NE TO NEAR 31N131W MON AFTERNOON WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 10N90W...AND ABSORBING THE HIGH CENTER CURRENTLY NEAR 26N125W. LARGE NW SWELLS WILL SOON REACH THE NW COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 7-9 FT COMBINED SEAS...WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SPREAD S ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST OF BAJA EARLY MON. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN E OF THE RIDGE AXIS ON MON INCREASING NW WINDS TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON MON EVENING THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT NEAR 30N117W LATE MON NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX E OF A RIDGE FROM 32N127W TO 10N115W ON TUE...BUT TIGHTEN W OF THE RIDGE WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING TO 20-30 KT N OF 27N W OF 137W ON TUE EVENING THROUGH WED. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AHEAD A A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FAR NW WATERS ON THU. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG ENE WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 7 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TUE NIGHT...WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT. THE THU NIGHT EVENT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT WITH THE NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 KT ON FRI. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A VERY SIGNIFICANT PAPAGAYO EVENT ON FRI NIGHT WITH NEAR GALE CONDITIONS. GULF OF PANAMA...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING NORTHERLY 20-30 KT WINDS FRI NIGHT AND SAT...DIMINISHING ON SUN. $$ NELSON