000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072133
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SAT FEB 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2030 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT 
FOR THE AREA WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W. A 
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO IS SENDING NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH CHIVELA PASS INTO THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW THE GALE 
FORCE BY THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO 
SHIFT TO A SE RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 
TO 15 FT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND WILL STEADY SUBSIDE 
THROUGH SUN...DIPPING BELOW 8 FT BY SUN EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE 
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZFEP03 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
 
FAR NW WATERS GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT 
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE AREA W OF LINE FROM 30N136W TO 26N138W. A 
SERIES OF SYSTEMS RIDING A POWERFUL SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET ARE 
PASSING THROUGH THE NW WATERS. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW GALE 
FORCE IN THE DISCUSSION AREA BUT ARE GALE FORCE JUST TO THE 
WEST. THE NEXT MORE POWERFUL COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED JUST W OF 
THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW WATERS BY SUNSET 
TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF 
THE FRONT N OF 27N. THIS GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 
SUNRISE SUN. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZFEP03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N85W ALONG 4N92W TO 4N101W 
WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 5N120W TO 6N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N E OF 86W TO INLAND OVER 
COLOMBIA AND CENTRAL AMERICA...WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
MONSOON TROUGH E OF 94W...AND FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 114W-126W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A POWERFUL SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET IS PASSING THROUGH THE NW 
WATERS WITH A SERIES OF SYSTEMS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH. 
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 32N124W TO 26N130W 
WITH A REINFORCING SURFACE TROUGH FOUND BEHIND IT FROM 30N132W 
TO 25N137W. A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXPECTED 
GALE WARNING IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE IS GENERATING A LINE 
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N137W TO 
27N140W. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW WATERS BY SUNSET 
TONIGHT AND WILL WEAKEN ON SUN THEN IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 
MON MORNING. AN AREA OF NW SWELL IS ALREADY IN PLACE W OF A LINE 
FROM 32N121W TO 15N140W. SEAS AS HIGH AS 16 FT LIE IN THE AREA 
OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS...BUT BUILDING NW SWELL AND INCREASING 
WINDS WILL INCREASE SEAS TO AS HIGH AS 22 FT LATER TODAY AND 
TONIGHT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AREA OF NW SWELL WITH SEAS OVER 
8 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD...REACHING THE 
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY SUNSET SUN...BUT MAXIMUM SEAS 
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES SUN MORNING 
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY NE OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND 
THE FRONT DISSIPATES.  

A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 27N121W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS 
SOUTHEASTWARD TO 15N109W AND ANOTHER SOUTHWESTWARD TO BEYOND 
20N140W. THE STUBBORN HIGH AND SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN 
THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH SUN WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN RIDGE 
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD 
FRONT...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW WATERS LATER TODAY...BEGINS TO 
DISSIPATE. TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE 
THROUGH MON MORNING.

GAP WINDS....                                                 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH E-NE WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 10 FT IN 
MIXED NE AND SW SWELL...ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS 
AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO STRONG WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT 
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF MOUNTAIN DRAINAGE 
FLOW BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING ON SUN. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 
8 FT BY SUN AFTERNOON.
 
$$ 
PAW