000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070328
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SAT FEB 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHERN 
TEXAS RIDGES SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO WITH NORTHERLY WINDS PUSHING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. EARLIER ASCAT PASSES AROUND 06/1548 UTC AND 06/1634 
UTC INDICATED PEAK WINDS OF 35-40 KT WITH MAXIMUM SEAS IN THE 20 
TO 22 FT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE OVERALL TREND FOR 
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IS DOWNWARD...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING 
BELOW GALE FORCE ON SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO 
LESS THAN 12 FT BY LATE SAT...AND LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE SUN. A 
NEW TEHUANTEPEC EVENT SHOULD BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT AND APPROACH 
GALE FORCE CONDITIONS EARLY TUESDAY.

GALE WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN AREA...AN UPPER-LONGWAVE TROUGH 
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL 
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N132W TO 
22N140W. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT AND SEAS 
OF 9 TO 17 FT IN NW SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL LATE 
SAT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO APPROACH THE NW CORNER 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN ACCOMPANIED BY 
W-SW 30-35 KT GALE FORCE WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 22 FT BY SUN 
MORNING. THE GALE FORCE WIND AREA AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF STRONG 
TO NEAR GALE WINDS WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE E-NE OF 30N BY SUN 
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WEAKENS GRADUALLY INTO MONDAY. THE 
LINGERING IMPACT WILL REMAIN NW SWELL PROPAGATING SE ACROSS THE 
WATERS W OF A LINE FROM 32N116W TO 01N140W. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N84W TO 03N102W. THE ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 03N102W TO 01N114W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 80W 
AND 92W...AND FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 116W TO 121W.

...DISCUSSION...                                 
               
A WEAK 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 26N121W WILL REMAIN NEARLY 
STATIONARY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY THEN LOSE IDENTITY IN A RIDGE 
BUILDING SE FROM 30N138W TO 16N113W.  
                                                 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS AND 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH SEAS TO 10 FT.  

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL 
FUNNEL ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT THROUGH 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 

$$ 
HUFFMAN