000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061604 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI FEB 06 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHERN TEXAS RIDGES S ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH NORTHERLY WINDS SURGING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. BOTH A 0316Z AND 0402Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS ONLY INDICATED PEAK WINDS OF 35-40 KT...WHICH WAS A GOOD 10 KT LOWER THAN SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS AND WHAT WE WERE CARRYING. MOREOVER...WINDSAT JUST ARRIVED FROM A 1244Z PASS STILL SHOWING ABOUT 40 KT OF WIND. THUS THE STORM WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A GALE WARNING FOR STRONG GALE CONDITIONS WITH PEAK SEAS OF 22 FT. FORCING SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND THE PEAK WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH TO 15- 20 KT ON SUN AFTERNOON. A NEW TEHUANTEPEC EVENT SHOULD BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT AND APPROACHING GALE CONDITIONS EARLY TUESDAY. GALE WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN AREA...AN UPPER-LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WITH A SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 30N132W TO 23N140W THOUGH IT SHOULD LOSE IDENTITY TONIGHT. HOWEVER... SOUTHWESTERLY 20-30 KT WINDS AND SEAS OF 12-15 FT ARE OBSERVED NW OF A LINE FROM 32N128W TO 25N140W. THESE NEAR GALE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT ARRIVING AT 30N140W TONIGHT. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL LOSE IDENTITY IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY AS A THIRD COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ACCOMPANIED BY SW-W 30-35 KT GALE WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 22 FT ON SATURDAY EVENING. THIS THIRD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N131W TO 22N136W ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE GRADIENT SUPPORTING SW-W 20-25 KT WINDS ONLY ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 30N W OF 125W...BUT THE ASSOCIATED NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE WATERS W OF A LINE FROM 32N122W TO 06N140W. THE NW SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE WITH ONLY 8 FT COMBINED SEAS FORECAST ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SUNDAY EVENING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N87W TO 03N103W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N103W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 02N TO 06N E OF 90W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ FROM 117W TO 123W. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 27N120W WILL DRIFT SW TO NEAR 25N125W LATE SUNDAY THEN LOSE IDENTITY IN A RIDGE BUILDING SE FROM 32N132W TO 12N105W. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FUNNEL ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GRIDDED WINDS ARE A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF AND GRIDDED WAVES ARE A BLEND OF THE 00Z WAVEWATCH III AND THE LOCALLY RUN SWAN MODEL IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. $$ NELSON/LANDSEA