000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061001
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC FRI FEB 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHERN 
TEXAS RIDGES S ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH NORTHERLY 
WINDS SURGING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. MINIMAL STORM 
FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO A MAXIMUM 
OF 23 FT NEAR 14N95.5W. A STRONG GALE IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING 
AND TONIGHT WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SAT 
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE ON SAT NIGHT. THE 
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT ON SUN AFTERNOON. 
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 
KT ON MON AFTERNOON WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING ON MON NIGHT 
INCREASING THE FLOW TO 20-30 KT BY SUNRISE TUE.

AN UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WITH A  
SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ACROSS 
THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE FIRST OF SEVERAL 
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTS HAS STALLED FROM 32N130W TO 24N140W 
AND SHOULD LOSE IDENTITY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY 20-30 
KT WINDS AND SEAS OF 8-13 FT ARE OBSERVED NW OF A LINE FROM 
32N125W TO 22N140W. THESE NEAR GALE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF 
A SECOND COLD FRONT ARRIVING AT 30N140W TONIGHT. THIS SECOND 
FRONT WILL LOSE IDENTITY IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SAT AS 
A THIRD COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ACCOMPANIED BY 
SW-W 30-40 KT GALE WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 22 FT ON SAT 
EVENING. THIS THIRD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N131W TO 22N136W ON 
SUN AFTERNOON WITH THE GRADIENT SUPPORTING SW-W 20-25 KT WINDS 
ONLY ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 30N W OF 125W...BUT THE ASSOCIATED 
NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE WATERS W OF A LINE FROM 
32N122W TO 06N140W. THE NW SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE WITH ONLY 8 FT 
COMBINED SEAS FORECAST ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA ON SUN EVENING.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 04N90W TO 04N97W WHERE 
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH 
CONTINUES SW TO 03N108W...THEN TURNS WNW TO BEYOND 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N85W TO 
04N90W.. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N116W TO 05N115W...AND IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 05N112W TO 
12N112W PER A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS. 

...DISCUSSION...                                 
               
A SURFACE HIGH NEAR 28N120W WILL DRIFT SW TO NEAR 25N125W LATE 
SUN THEN LOSE IDENTITY IN A RIDGE BUILDING SE FROM 32N132W TO 
12N105W.   SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 05N112W TO 12N112W PER A 
RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS. 
                                                 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE 
THROUGH SAT NIGHT ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
WITH SEAS TO 9 FT.  

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FUNNEL 
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH SAT MORNING. 
 
$$ 
NELSON