000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060338 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI FEB 06 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TO SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNWIND TO THE SW. EARLIER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A WELL DEFINED ROPE CLOUD MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF AND REACHING NEAR 09N97W. THIS ROPE CLOUD IS LIKELY DELINEATES THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CURRENT GAP WIND EVENT. A RECENT WINDSAT PASS ALSO PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS ARE NOW IN THE 9-14 FT RANGE...AND WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 21-22 FT BY FRI MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE TO STORM STRENGTH. THE BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK DIURNAL FORCING AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE TO GALE FORCE BY SAT MORNING. THIS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH SUN AS WINDS FINALLY TAPER BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 8 FT. GALE WARNING ACROSS THE NW PART...A LARGE A VERY COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST N OF THE AREA WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS REACHING THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST REGION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY TIGHT RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS NW OF A LINE FROM 30N124W TO 20N140W BY FRI EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVING NE JUST N OF THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BRING GALE FORCE WINDS BY SAT EVENING. CURRENTLY...MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SW TO W WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE N OF 26N W 135W. AS A RESULT...A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH THE 0000 UTC FORECAST PACKAGE. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE LOWS AND FRONTS BUILDING SEAS TO 20-21 FT BY SAT EVENING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 04N90W TO 05N95W TO 05N100W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N100W TO 06N108W THEN RESUMES W OF A SURFACE TROUGH AT 05N114W TO 06N125W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 84W AND 93W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 28N120W WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WITH GENERALLY 6 TO 8 FT SEAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 11N110W TO 05N111W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. THIS TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 15N120W. THE OVERALL DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT BECOMES CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS GULF WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THIS GAP WIND EVENT AS WELL AS SOME FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF FONSECA... PARTICULARLY FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND LIKELY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO 20 KT OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. $$ GR